In zone 6, with Carny's, you'll need 60-80#. About a medium and 1/2. With Italian's...who knows. They will brood through the winter or until the food is gone. High pops. will usually die because they consume all their food. Sorry this isn't more positive.
I just checked wholesale honey prices for Ia., they will vary. About $2.30/lb. If the colony dies and you have used meds on it, that honey is usable for feed only. Wasted. If the colony dies the meds are Wasted, the wrap and labor is Wasted, your worry is Wasted. If you harvest even 55# of honey you break even, plus you get rid of Varroa mites and shb by not having bees around. That little bit of math doesn't include the experience you gained and the value of the drawn comb. Like I've told you before, take all the honey, store your equipment with moth crystals, don't worry, drink beer on Saturdays, sing Rocky Top after every Tennessee first down, and order new bees with a carny queen as close to the first of the year as possible.
I open colonies all the time, you can too. Once you have 7-8 frames of bees and brood, put the excluder on and UNLESS you have problems, don't look under that excluder until you take it off to get the honey. Problem solved, Trust me, all queens look the same except for color and you looking for the queen every 2 weeks will not help her lay more eggs or the colony produce more honey. From your experience, you need to figure out by just lifting the lid if you need a super. I'm sure that info is in the packet of material I sent you. No, I'm positive it is.
Queens fly away, get crushed, die, stop laying, all the time, they are just bugs after all. Queens are hard to dislodge from the comb. The colony will start to replace her from freshly laid eggs within 20-30 mins. They are so good at this, they will even pick eggs that are produced continuously just for this purpose, called royal caste eggs.
Bees will not leave brood, some people call it a lock, especially with swarms. I routinely lock swarms with a frame of brood.
Some beeks, commercial especially, routinely shake all there bees off the combs in front of the colony when they harvest brood in the spring, so yes the queen can get home too.
I do not suggest you let your bees die, just wish them good luck for the winter!
Have a quality night, City.