What does NAEFS mean by “above normal”? I had this same discussion with my local weather guys on FB (a good one) regarding the plot I posted a few days ago. Here in IA, probably similar to WI, 1-standard error on the average temperature is 12 to 14 degrees in March. Does 90-100% probability of above normal mean >1SE above normal, or within 1 SE but greater than the mean temperature?
Also, the red color on that graph is misleading because we associate red with higher temperatures. However this is a plot of probabilities. If the temperatures are within 1SE, but still above normal, 100% probability of above normal does not necessarily mean furnace. [/rant]