I said I’d be pleased just to get peaches, E. plums, apples, nects and pears and, so far, that looks like mostly it. Shiro, Great Yellow, Flavor Grenade and Early Majic have viable buds but many of my tastiest varieties have dead brown flower buds (Satsuma, Santa Rosa, Ruby Queen). Same deal at many sites better located than mine.
Shiro is once again the most reliable survivor of J.plums. Apricots only made it at the best sites (this includes a wide range of varieties, including most Harrow selections), but I may get a small crop from Alfred growing against my wall as I left a lot of short annual shoots where most surviving flower buds are- flower buds on older spurs apparently developed earlier and were vulnerable to cold snaps in mid-Feb. In the future I won’t prune cots until after petal fall (or at bloom). Of peaches, it appears Flavor May was largely destroyed. Gold Dust and Honey Royale nectarine don’t have many surviving flower buds either, but I have to look closer to see if this is because of cold or just crappy set to begin with. Both of these are generally poor producers here. I’m wondering if I can figure out a way to summer prune them so they produce smaller, more productive annual shoots- they are both excessively vigorous with a few flowers at the end of some of the excessively large shoots.
Emerald Beaut plum is barely alive due to cold events a couple years ago, Maybe that’s why it has lots of viable flower buds as more vigorous wood tends to have more water. In the west you can improve freeze tolerance by turning off irrigation in the fall.
After the disaster of last year I am ecstatic to see all the buds on the species that are doing well. I’ll take it!.. but still a long ways to go. .
I’m not sure I’m reading that right- I think it is saying that SW CT will be 4-6 degrees C (11F) below normal. Since the average low on May 8th is 46F degrees, does that mean it will get down to about 35F?
Apples are still in bloom now, but should be close to done by then. I don’t think that 35F would hurt anything, but much lower would. For what it’s worth, the 10 day forecast currently puts the low at 42F on May 8th and 41F on May 3rd.
Hard to say this far out…i’d wait and watch this progress a little. I had models showing me in the 20Fs a few nights and the coldest i’ve been down to is 32F to 34F…wind/clouds etc can make a huge difference…ground temps…the long days help too.
Wants to really carve that trough out in the east days 8-10
I just wanted to report nothing was hit here. My Flavor Supreme is the most sensitive and it lost half it’s fruit buds. Nothing else lost any. Supreme is going to set some fruit here all the same. So a great year so far. With the south being hit, we will have great demand for our peaches in Michigan. Will probably have 2nd or 3rd largest crop in the states this year. usually we are 6th.
“If temps stay above about 25 from here on out, we should be fine.”
Would that be true if fruits are already formed? I have 3/8" diameter cherries, plums and peaches. (in fact I’ve already been hit by some PC). We might get to 32 overnight this weekend.
I think for most that will be the case. I would say more your typical frost prone areas should be aware of the potential. On top of that…the amount of time spent in the cold is very short because of the lengthening days…
It will definitely feel chilly though…
Ztom-
I had a freeze mid May last year…the airport had 30F on May 15th…this was a typical clear/calm condition setup. I think my yard ran a little colder then that (28F ish)… Everything was well along at that point…i actually think the leaves probably helped a little… i did have some frost damage on some fruit (i think the pears had rings on some of them) but overall everything made it fine…had a good apricot crop. Other areas of the state got hit hard (vineyards were fried)…
That has been my experience. Last year it was 17 degrees in my orchard when J.plums were in bloom- still got SOME J. plums. It is common in this region to get pretty hard frosts until mid-May- well past petal fall, but if it doesn’t get crazy cold everything works out fine. That’s not saying I don’t worry every time it dips below freezing- a spring without worry would be a unique experience.
I’m a little concerned about Monday and Tuesday morning. The forecast changes depending on time of day. Last night they had high 20’s for the low. Problem is, I often get 5-8 degrees lower if is it is clear sky.
I got lucky last night. It clouded over more than expected. It only got down to 31ºF.
Yep, things are looking potentially bad here in north central PA as well. 35 last night, no problem with that, but forecast lows for Sunday and Monday are 27. My Euro pears are set and what plums (both Japanese and Euro) that I’ll be getting are likely set, but some of the apples are in full bloom and some are just starting to open, so I could see some real damage to the apple crop if we don’t get a bit of luck. My sweet cherries are also likely set (I’m not sure whether I’m getting any fruit or not), but my sour cherries are also just starting to bloom and could be in for a partial or total disaster.
