Farm Almanac predicting harsh winter in east

Maybe our local weather experts here will have a better idea if there is anything to this or not, but today this was the AOL headline

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/08/15/farmers-almanac-predicts-teeth-chattering-old-fashioned-winter/21451974/

The article begins with the statement:
“The Farmer’s Almanac is a go-to resource to an accurate weather prediction.”

Really?

haha. Hey now…I never said I vouched for them and their sunspot methods or accuracy of their predictions!!! Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t…I’m not in that debate! Just passing along a headline of interest. :slight_smile:

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No one can predict the weather with 100% accuracy but the animals seem to agree with the farmers almanac in my area. Animals are gathering for winter early and some birds are already bunching up. The trees are producing like it could be a serious winter. Those signs might mean an early winter. I saw migrating pelicans the last couple of days and that’s the first time I saw them come through here. That may be due to floodwaters elsewhere as well.

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My question is whether it predicted a harsh summer for this year. I think we’ve had 57 days in a row with the temperature over 90 now. :cold_sweat:

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A cold winter would be fine with me. The mild winter last year seemed to cause an increase in bacterial tree disease

I’d just like some darn rain someday…

The FA predictions have no scientific validity and appear to be nothing more than a promotional tactic. They don’t even make their “methodology” public. Analysis of their historical accuracy supports this conclusion. The subject came up last year and I’d really rather we didn’t promote snake oil here, even as a conversational subject. At any rate, I believe it belongs in the Lounge. Baseless weather "predictions’ will not help anyone grow fruit. It’s hard enough to sort out the genuine info.

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…checks calendar, not 1996
AOL is still around, good for them :smirk:

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I thought they predicted a harsh winter last year as well??

I’m sorry Alan. It was not my intention to “promote” anything. There is a great deal of discussion on this site about weather, I saw an article about weather, and I posted it without any agenda or bias as to its validity. Weather affects all gardening, so that’s why I selected that category. If the moderators want to move it to the Lounge then I certain don’t have any objections whatsoever.

So while I’m mostly in agreement with you, I do not agree that just because you don’t agree with this particular source of information that you should get to decide what does and does not get to be discussed here. I’m confident that there are some people on this site who use the farmer’s almanac and think it has at least some validity-certainly a lot of Americans do. You may well be right in saying all those people are wrong are therefore foolish, but why not just offer your evidence of that and let them offer their belief’s. You yourself have spoken of the value of vigorous debate and discussion, so why not let that happen on this topic as well? I have the utmost respect for you and your knowledge of fruit growing, but I always get a little uncomfortable when someone says “my view is the right one and we should not even waste our time hearing or reading about views that differ from my own”. So even though I actually am on your side in terms of not really accepting farmer’s almanac methodology, I don’t think even you should get to completely shut down a discussion just because you don’t agree with one side of it (ie that FA is junk). Even if it is snake oil, let the snake oil people defend it. Maybe they know something we don’t know about the “secret methodology” that would change our views. No, I dont think so either, but I like free and open discussion even when I think I’m right! SO I’m sorry you’d rather not “promote snake oil” here via debate and discussion, but I hope we always have a forum that at least allows for different points of view.

Again, please know I’m only challenging your assertion that you’d rather not see the subject discussed here, nothing else. You’ve always been very helpful to me and others and I always respect your knowledge of fruit growing!

1996? Don’t you remember those free aol disks you used to see everywhere back in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s encouraging you to use DIAL UP to get on their bulletin board? haha. But your point is well taken…AOL isn’t exactly a state of the art web presence! Just so you know, I use it because some poor soul set up our work e-mail as an AOL account b4 I came, and since it was on our letterhead and so on, I never changed it.

I’m always interested in what FA has to say, The accuracy looks bad till you look at how well NOAA did!! HA! Not any better of you ask me! At least the FA doesn’t fake data. Talk about bad info! To NOAA’s credit they are developing a new system, as the old one is not working! It’s going to take three years to develop. Currently the ECMWF provides the best forecasts.The GFS model. sucks if you ask me.

Yes, I bought AOL as an IPO, and made ten’s of thousands of dollars. If you bought 2 grand worth of stock as an IPO, it was at one time worth 100 grand. I did buy 2 grand worth, but didn’t stay in. After 1200% increase I sold.

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Better yet, explain what you think is the basis of FA meteorological posturings. There are other forums for faith based discussions but in this one I strive to keep focus on the personal anecdotal observations of members as well as research based information, and have generally been supported on this by other Mods and membership in general. Otherwise I wouldn’t be here.

This isn’t about “views”, it is about real information. I suggest you search for some info about how Farm Alm comes up with their predictions and what actual weather scientists think of their work as I did last year when this came up. Also the historic accuracy of their predictions. It’s all out there and I really don’t feel I should have to do it again.
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In terms of what their predictions are based on, the article itself says it is on sunspots. You may not feel that is a valid method for predicting the weather, and I honestly don’t think I do either, but I don’t think I’d call it “faith based”. I’ suspect there are some here who think there is some valid scientific research and hypothesis testing done on sun spots as a prediction tool. All I am saying is that I don’t see why we shouldn’t be able to have a discussion about whether or not it is a valid method of prediction or if FA predictions have any degree of accuracy. I don’t much think they do, but I see no harm in discussing it. We have already heard from at least one forum member who says they follow and are interested in Farm Almanac predictions.

To say this entire forum is only about real information and not about “views” seems disingenuous. There are countless threads here where people state their views on which is the best way to approach a problem or address an issue. This site nor its moderators don’t always require people with different solutions to provide scientific evidence for their opinions/views. Views and opinions are expressed here all the time. ANd sometimes those views are challenged, which is great. I have no problem whatsoever if you want to challenge the view that this is going to be a cold winter because FA says so- I was just a little taken aback when you said we shouldn’t even be allowed to discuss the matter here. As I’ve said, I am just a little uncomfortable with letting one person completely decide what is and is not open for discussion when it clearly falls within the area of growing fruit. Weather certainly affects fruit growth. If the other moderators have given you alone the authority to decide what can and can’t be discussed here, then they will let you delete this thread. If not, it will remain open for people to discuss and debate whether or not we can trust the farmers almanac’s prediction that a harsh winter is coming. Either way, I still respect you and the moderators. My only concern was saying you don’t agree with the methodology so we can’t talk about it. That’s all. Otherwise I still value your experience and opinion on growing fruit.

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I’m really sorry for touching off the flames when I made this post:

My intended meaning was not about the FA, but instead I was questioning the newswriter’s statement that it is a go-to resource.

So my poorly worded query was misunderstood by Kevin, who responded cheerfully:

After that, the conversation turned to the validity of the FA – and yet Kevin never presented the article as viable in the first place.

So I recommend we all have two beers and if that doesn’t help call the doctor in the morning.

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