Mild winter predicted

Great news as far as I am concerned: Accuweather predicts this winter will be markedly milder than last year’s for most of the nation. And Calif should get more precip. Yay!

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I’m glad you like the forecast. Because wet sounds good for west Texas thru CA.

Not as brutal for the NE isn’t saying much, but I’ll take it!

True, but accuweather was wrong 2 years ago and the Farmer’s Almanac predicted a harsh winter (the only ones) and predict another for the Midwest and Northeast, well colder than normal and more snow than normal.
Farmer’s Almanac has an 80% accuracy rating.
October and November are predicted to be slightly warmer than normal.

I’ll believe it when i see it…too many times i’ve seen winter forecasts say this or that and it never happens or does the exact opposite. Hopefully California does get a bunch of mountain snow…because they aren’t going to survive much longer if not.

The Almanac predicts no rain, against all other predictions in CA. Also a very hot winter. The Southwest is also expected to have a warm winter. The South, a normal winter. The Midwest and Northeast, colder than normal. Astronomers that study solar physics, predict 15 years of cold weather due to record low sun spot activity. We just went through 20 years of the most sun spots ever seen. It has ended. Their certainly is a correlation between increased sun spot activity and increased temps. Mars and Venus have way above normal temps, one reason water has been seen on Mars. Global warming is occurring on these planets due to the last 20 years of increased solar activity (sun spots). . Although this is only one factor in determining weather. Wind patterns, volcanic activity etc, all play a role on every planet.


Looks like they are saying similar things to what the NWS is predicting. Have a look.

NOAA got it spot on here last winter, wet and cold. That’s very far from normal so I have to give credit where due.

They are saying the same thing this winter and we just got 2.2 inches the last two days. I hope that’s just the start.

According to what numbers, I wonder. In my experience FA has often been wrong about predictions. The fun one is that their prediction that we are in a long term cooling trend globally and climatologist consensus is mistaken, but we won’t get started on that one. I only would like to see data verifying the historic accuracy of FA long term forecasts. Here is another opinion on the subject of their accuracy.

At least this might bring some comfort from folks concerned about their dire astrological forecast.

I’m sorry to say that this format seems to not allow me to post links anymore and cuts off articles I cut and paste to a single para. A quick search will reveal the lack of science in the Famer’s Almanac weather predictions and the lack of any authentic proof of their accuracy.

It has been cooling for 18 years according to NOAA data. Recently they decided the numbers were wrong and changed them to show warming, but last year at this time the numbers showed 18.8 years of cooling. What a joke NOAA is. They have been caught changing numbers 4 or 5 times.
Last week a prominent mathematician found a flaw in the long term forecast software, when fixed the program shows cooling.
I continue to be amazed that intelligent people have fallen for this scam, well I guess I’m not surprised, the ozone joke was another. Now admitting they were wrong, yet that is not covered by any news organization. It is so obvious the earth is cooling I don’t see how anybody can buy into global warming.
The Northwest passage continues to be frozen solid, as the ice on Antarctic caps continues to grow.

Forbes magazine got it right

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I’m a firm believer in the global cooling trend, at least here in SC. For the past 4 years our winters
have started more and more early, every year, and last longer than usual. Heck, we’re supposed to have
a low of 39 this coming sunday, and it’s only October 18. We had a freeze this year on Palm Sunday, which
was the latest freeze we’ve ever had, since they’ve started keeping weather records.

Hey Ray you got to admit that’s a little funny, global=SC. Four yrs in one state doesn’t prove much about global trends.

Okay, maybe SC doesn’t = the world, but it IS the center of the universe. Right? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Coldest, hottest, driest, wettest - all of those record breakers make for more difficult growing conditions. I haven’t been enjoying experiencing one after another in our little microcosm, although I did enjoy the Feb a few years ago when it was in the 80’s much of the month.

That could be literally correct. I find great satisfaction in studying the universe, it’s origins, and it’s future. Not sure anyone knows where the center is located so why not SC!!!


Yeah, Drew, I think we’ve already been on this merry-go-round and I’m clear on your opinion on the subject of global COOLING.

I’d rather stick to the question of the accuracy of the weather predictions of the Farmer’s almanac. For the general consensus on its accuracy just google “accuracy of Farmers Almanac forecasts”. See if you can find a single legitimate source that gives them any credence. The trend seems to compare their methods and level of accuracy with astrology. Lots of very intelligent people believe in Astrology.

You tell em Dianna. SC IS our world, and we don’t live anywhere else.

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The 80% comes from them, i would say a 50% chance of that being correct. :monkey_face:

Yes, so why do you bring up global warming? It’s OK for you to do so, but I’m not supposed to respond? If you don’t want me to respond, do not bring it up.
You claimed the cooling prediction was wrong, when it is not. You expressed your opinion, I’m just expressing mine. We also all know where you stand too.
Anyway I like having these discussions. So you have to endure more…

I feel The Almanac was correct the last few years in this area, but I don’t think it’s a great system to forecast. They use planetary movement and such. Have since the start. I think it’s accurate due to the low sun activity, as most solar physicists think we are in for a very long cold spell. That is who I put my faith in. History supports their belief, as the last time this happened we had a mini ice age. I think we may be on the brink of another mini-ice age. My beliefs about global warming or not are based on past history too. Carbon Dioxide are near record lows for our history, and also the fact that carbon dioxide follows warm temps, not the other way around. The warmer it is, the more carbon dioxide. If a football field, 100 yards represented our atmosphere. Carbon dioxide would be pencil thick, the carbon we put in the air would be 1mm. So no i don’t believe such a small amount changes anything. I don’t buy it. Again we are below the average amount of carbon in our air if you include all of our history. It’s rarely this low. All the carbon on earth is just the same as it was since the earth formed. It’s not like we have more carbon now. We have less available as it becomes buried with time. The volcanoes bring some back to the surface.
The only way carbon is created is through Super Novas. We are very ethnocentric thinking our activity can actually change the earth’s climate. How arrogant we are.
That earthquake in Japan that caused the radiation leak. So much mass was shifted our axis angle changed. That in itself changes all weather as the angle the sun hits us has changed. That is scary stuff to me! One huge earthquake could change all weather on earth. To think we have any influence is a joke! I remember the summer I fought a fire on Russell Island where 3 houses burned thanks to the 40 mile an hour winds. I felt small, and insignificant. Mother Nature put me in my place that night. I swore at Mother Nature as loud as I could. That had about as much effect as my efforts to put out the fire. The fire ran it’s course and I could do nothing about no matter how hard I tried. Luckily nobody was hurt. I do agree with the alarmists who have admitted nothing we do will change anything. I do buy that 100%.
At one time crop scientists thought DDT was a great chemical, a consensus was reached that it was safe. I think that says it all.

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It was a single sentence- you can have a single sentence or do whatever you want- write volumes about your favorite climate theories. I’ve lost interest in debating the subject.

I did think it interesting that their take on GW was also not a bit in synch with the general scientific consensus,but didn’t want to start a 200 post rehash about climate change.

As I said, the real point I was making is that the Farmer’s Almanac mysterious forecasting methods aren’t exactly favorably embraced by meteorologists and the 80% accuracy estimate seems to be based on their own data analysis. Do you have any information to straighten me out on that?

I had my rant, and my apologies. I promise to never bring it up again, no matter what. It is useless anyway. I have no desire to convince you or anybody else. I guess I just get frustrated about it. When you see an injustice it’s hard to ignore, I cannot change the world.

No you are correct. it is their own number. I don’t buy it either. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I was joking about the 50% chance. They made some correct predictions, but many were incorrect too. NOAA day to day stuff is very good, even long term predictions. The Warming stuff is in response to political pressure, i would do the same thing if i wanted to keep my job. I would give them what they wanted. It is understandable why they changed numbers on decade old data. They were under fire from the powers that be. I wish we could take the politics out of science, but from day one it has been part of it.
Even back to Galileo and the church wanting him to recant. I admire him for sticking to his guns and having to spend his life in exile. Nobody has that big of ones these days.
I have a friend at Nasa I mentioned before. This person has been pulled off the solid rocket research and is doing national defense now, I wish Nasa could get back to being Nasa. Oh i asked what? And the person said I can’t tell you. This person is a rocket scientist (for real). Maybe that is hint as to what this person is working on? Yes “this person” is all i will say as I don’t want to get them in trouble.

Anyway I hope we do have a mild winter. I need a break form this! I’m still going to do all i can to protect my fruit trees and blackberries. The summer was cool here overall with few 90 degree days no 100 degree days at all.So to me it doesn’t look promising. It’s local weather for sure. The Great Lakes are about 5 degrees cooler than normal, so that isn’t going to help. The good thing about that is it freezes early and we have less water loss, keeping lake levels high. Evaporation in the winter on open water really takes it’s toll on water levels. The Freighter’s need deep water to keep a moving!
The lakes also keep us warmer. i see south of me in PA temps are going to the 20’s and here they are only getting to 33F. See the post on Garden Web - “Go directly to freeze do not pass frost”. He could use some advice!

If the Farmer’s Almanac had predicted gentle drenching rains of adequate amount to refill all of the west’s aquifers and reservoirs, I would have embraced it. Because they are predicting continued suffering I’d rather find a way to make them wrong, so I guess we are in absolute agreement.