Northeast in for repeat of disaster of 2016?

[alan]

That is true, but the buds were clearly swollen more than they should have been. That is why they were susceptible to the negative temps.

Yes, I know. It seemed like the peach buds were as swollen during most of winter as they are now. I didn’t think too much about it until I saw the damage. Peaches should have been at pink last April 1 and I was trying to figure how much damage would occur the coming night, only to discover my peach crop was already lost.

[AJfromElmiraNY]

I didn’t think too much about it until I saw the damage.

At the time, I wasn’t really sure what they were supposed to look like, but they didn’t look right to me. I had never really given much attention to January buds before. This year I made sure I checked at least every 2 weeks, starting in November. Now I have reference for what fully dormant buds should look like in the dead of winter. I can definitely say now that they were partially swollen January of last year. They weren’t swollen here as of beginning of this January, but a low chill variety has swollen a little from the warm spells we’ve had since then. It sounds like bud swelling is significantly more advanced south and east of here.

[alan]

Yes, my peach buds look like they did in Jan '16, but plums and cots are more like mid-Feb '16. I don’t know what to expect. Cutting open buds to see what’s brown isn’t that effective in my brief experience with the method. Last year I would see some brown and some green after April Fools on trees that turned out to be barren.

[warmwxrules]

I was going to comment on how cold the models look for next weekend, but it would seem there is a ton of spread in them…so long term forecasts are pretty iffy.

Baltimore:
There is very large ensemble spread not
only in the evolution of the low pressure area next weekend, but
also the wave pattern over the entire Northern Hemisphere which
makes the forecast quite uncertain this far out.

[Matt_in_Maryland]

Was cold today here. I surveyed my mountain orchard again and it still looks to be in pretty good shape. All buds are still closed. The Asian plums surprised me though. Within the past week, they grew a lot, and now look to be furthest along. Here is Beauty plum, the most advanced tree of the lot (but still not broke out yet):

[Drew51]

Mine are not even that far along. Most people in zone 7 seem to have it worse, but you’re doing OK, we are far from done though. My plants seem to be where they should be, not really that concerned. At worst I will get a good thinning. But who knows with this wacky weather.

[galinas]

For us it was 10F this morning. Next week will be much warmer, but by next weekend 10-14F again… These jumps make me crazy.

[mamuang]

Heard it on a radio the other day, orchard farmers have been worried. They are the ones I feel very bad for.

This year’s weather fluctuation could be worse than last year. We had the record high a week before the record low and that was in late Feb and early March. More to come I bet.

[VA-Jay]

In Virginia we had reasonably good luck with this cold snap. The coldest temp I measured was 24 degrees early Sunday morning. A number of my apricot blossoms will be fried, but even on that front I should have enough survive that I could still have some apricots this year.

The real worry is that we could easily have another frost between now and April that could do a large amount of damage, and there will be far more blossoms to injure if we have another cold snap.

[tonyOmahaz5]

Matt,

How may acres is at your mountain property? It is looked very tranquil.

Tony

[ianrwilliams]

Has anyone tried doming (or somehow covering) their trees with PVA film during these crucial weeks? Groworganic has sheets that say it increases soil and air temps by 5-10º and leaf temps by 2-6º but won’t trap heat during the warm spells.

Dio-Betalon PVA Film + 8 Clips (Tufbell 3800N Replacement) (78 inch x 20' Pkg) -...

[Matt_in_Maryland]

Thanks, Tony. The property is 7.5 acres of 70-year old eastern hardwood forest. About half an acre is fenced off for my orchard.

[SpudDaddy]

I bought tree covers this year from Amazon. The thicker ones (1.5 ounces) supposedly increase the heat 6 to 8 degrees. I will need it this weekend 20 F and snow in Lynchburg Va. I can’t tell you if they work - teh reviews on Amazon look promising.

[VA-Jay]

Which ones did you get? Do you mind sending me a link? I am thinking of trying to do something to save some of my apricots.

[SpudDaddy]

Amazon.com : Agfabric Plant Cover Warm Worth Frost Blanket - 1.5 oz Fabric of 144''Hx120''W Shrub Jacket, Rectangle Plant Cover for Season Extension&Frost Protection : Garden & Outdoor

You can select the size from a drop down menu. Be careful as not all sizes offer prime shipping (if you need in 2 days).

[alan]

IMO those won’t work. As I said before, the heat comes from the ground- those will only work if you put an incandescent light bulb in there or something that generates heat. If you have a tent affect with adequate ground being covered the heat from the ground has a significant affect at moderating temps. If you don’t use the ground heat, you probably don’t have to wrap the entire trunk, just tie the thing to the trunk directly below the scaffolds- but you will need a heat source.

[bleedingdirt]

How far do you live from there? I’d love to own a mountain retreat!

[Matt_in_Maryland]

I live 25 minutes driving distance away. It’s a beautiful drive along the front ridge of the Catoctin portion of the Appalachian mountains. Camp David is 3 miles north along the same mountain ridge. My wife and I have worked very hard - and endured some frugal times - to pull the mortgage for it. Currently, we both have good jobs, so the dream lives on.

[warmwxrules]

Do you notice a big difference between bloom times at your house compared to your land? I’m assuming you grow a few of your trees in both locations?

[hungryfrozencanuck4b]

At least up north we are still safe. Had a couple days of +6 to +10 C but we still have about 3 feet of snow down which is actually more like a solid block of ice right now. Calling for -22C (-7.6F) this Friday! Winter’s not over for us yet.