Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for january 2018 is 14,3. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast lowered on some months and raised on some months. Solar activity was lower july 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 30 days. Sun has been 119 days without sunspot this year, counting first 7 month this year. That is 56% of days without sunspot for first 7 months this year. Decline speed increased from last month 0,3 decline to this month 0,8. Forecast was 14,5, so we got 0,2 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 1,7 decline forecast.
Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 12,6 (-0,5), 10,2 (-0,3), 8,5 (-0,2), 8,4 (0,0), 8,4 (+0,1), 8,3. Last month in new in the list. Last month we had 6,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 6,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.
Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.
2018 14.3 12.6e (-0,5), 10.2e (-0,3), 8.5e (-0,2), 8.4e (0,0), 8.4e (+0,1), 8.3e (+0,3), 8.0e (+0,4), 7.8e (+0,4), 7.6e (+0,4), 7.0e (+0,5), 6.0e (+0,4),
2019 5.6e (+1,6), 4.7 (+0,9), 4.1 (+0,4), 3.5 (+0,1), 3.2 (+0,1), 2.9 (+0,5), 2.7 (+0,7), 2.3 (+0,1), 2.0 (-0,4), 2.2 (-0,5), 2.4 (-0,7), 2.7 (-0,9),
We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019, solar cycle length 10,8 years or 129 months, which is 2 months longer than last month forecast when it was 10,6 years or 127 months. This is 5,3 years or 64 month rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have already reaches solar cycle maximum, solar cycle decline from solar maximum to solar cycle minimum is 5,4 years or 65 months when it was 5,2 years or 63 months last month.
Above forecast show 15 months which got higher forecast and 3 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle numbers got all lowered.
I wrote last month that there was quite bit change from last month 2018 to first month 2019, looks like i wrote word chance in my last message when i meant word change, that big change has been now been corrected in new forecast which is good thing so decline speed toward solar cycle minimum is more steady.
We got little bigger update now than last month. Forecasted decline speed for next 6 month decreased from last month which is right thing to do in my opinion so we don’t reach so fast solar cycle minimum. That forecast now have 2 months have same forecasted number. It is right thing in my opinion that big change last month 2018 to first month 2019 we had last month have been now corrected in new forecast. New forecast increased solar cycle 24 length from july 2019 to september 2019 which is right thing to do, but it is still shorter than average of 11 year length which would have been december 2019, but it is still toward right direction. I can also mention that in new forecast decline from solar solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now longer than rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, last month rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was longer than decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum. If you remember solar cycle length on average is 11 years, which is 4 years rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, 7 years decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum. New forecast now have right order of solar cycle length, decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now longer than rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, it is not much longer in forecast, but it is now in right way in forecast. Overall situation changed little bit more than last month, we got new SSN, new forecast. Looks like forecast think we are declining too fast toward solar cycle minimum as forecast was mostly raised from last month, we are still toward solar cycle minimum, decline speed is just slower toward solar cycle minimum. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.