Solar cycle 24 update,


#1

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for february 2017 is 26,6. We reached forecast and forecast was increased. Decline speed increased from last month 0,6 to this month 0,7. Forecast was 26,3 so we got 0,3 higher than forecasted number. We are now 2 years from solar cycle minimum based on forecast. For the next month we have 1,5 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 months () showing change from last month : 25,1 (+0,6), 23,9 (+0,6), 23,6 (+0,6), 23,8 (+0,6), 23,7 (+0,6), 23,3. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 4,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 3,3 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

My earlier message seems to be disappeared, i don’t have those my earlier message text other than numbers and solar cycle length in note so this probably don’t look exactly same way as mine earlier message. This is short repeat of solar cycle 24. Solar cycle 24 began december 2008, had solar maximum april 2014 and now we are going toward solar cycle minimum. Solar cycle last on average 11 years, 4 years rise to solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum and 7 years decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum. So it took longer than average to reach solar cycle maximum this solar cycle. Solar cycle minimum is forecast to be february 2019 so we are 2 years from solar cycle minimum according this forecast. This month change from last month was that decline speed declined notably for next 6 months as can be seen above. It didn’t change solar cycle length but did slowed decline speed in forecast. We still have that third forecasted recovery in forecast, i think it is still too far away to say if it can happen or not. I think it is wise not not make long term change in forecast based on short term change so that solar cycle length forecast was not changed from last month. Forecast are not always right, so it remains to be seen if that slower decline speed holds up forecast. It remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#2

Hi

Let’s update solar solar cycle 24 situation now. Now we have bigger update, we got new SSN, new forecast, i also write more in future forecast of SSN and also have image of solar cycle 24 which might help to get better overall image of where sun is now. But let’s begin with sunspot numbers then we can look at those new things. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for march 2017 is 25,8. We reached forecast and forecast was increased. Decline speed increased 0,1 from last month 0,7 to this month 0,8. Forecast was 25,1 so we got 0,7 higher than forecasted number. Next month we have 0,5 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 months () showing change from last month : 25,3 (+1,4), 24,7 (+1,1), 24,7 (+0,9), 24,5 (+0,8), 23,9 (+0,6), 23,5. Last month in new in the list. Last month we had 3,3 decline forecast for next 6 month for that time time number, now we have 2,3 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to december 2018, solar cycle length 10 years or 120 months, which is 2 months shorter than last month when it was 10,2 years and 122 months.

Next is new thing, following are forecasted SSN to december 2018. First is year and then is month in list, jun for example is june. I couldn’t remove observed number in the list nicely, so first forecast have that character after number. First 12 forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers which have e character after number.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 27.9 26.6 25.8 25.3e 24.7e 24.7e 24.5e 23.9e 23.5e 22.8e 22.0e 21.7e
2018 21.4e 20.5e 18.5e 16.6 15.8 15.2 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.3 12.9

Next is image of solar cycle 24. I have asked if i can use this image and answer was yes, so here is the image. Acknowledgments to ips of this image.

“In this a graph of the current solar cycle: observed monthly sunspot number (thin yellow), observed smoothed monthly sunspot number (thick turquoise) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (magenta crosses).”

Graph of Sunspot Numbers

I needed quote those explanations as they seemed to to wrote it good way. This image shows how solar cycle 24 has gone as of now. I think this image is from ocrober 2017 as of now at writing this message so it is up to date. I think this image, graph or chart can help getting better image of sun situation than just plain numbers. This image begins december 2008 or about that time as that was tim when solar cycle 24 began. In vertically are sunspot number and horizontally is time in years. Yellow line is monthly sunspot number which don’t have that 6 month delay, blue line (text says it is turquiose) is smoothed sunspot number which have that 6 month delay, magenta line is forecasted SSN. It shows that monthly sunspot number can go up and down one month to another, line looks like a roller coaster it have many higher monthly activity and then it drop lower level and have done that many times. That is why it is wise not to pay too much attention single month activity and look overall situation. Smoothed sunspot number is that magenta line show much smoothed line and give better overall image of situation. I have wrote earlier we had peak in 2012 but solar cycle maximum was in 2014 as it was in higher than earlier achieved number as can be seen in graph. Now we are going toward solar cycle minimum, i guess it can be said we have been going toward solar cycle minimum relatively fast.

In new forecast our third forecasted recovery is cancelled. Now we have two months of same forecasted number, then continuing decline. One thing about this image and above mentioned solar cycle length. It said solar cycle length 10 years that would be december 2018, but if we look that image after 2018 forecasted magenta line is still declining, look after last dotted line in right side of the image. This suggest solar cycle 24 minimum is not december 2018, but we only have forecasted numbers to december 2018. Before i said solar cycle length, but now i have to think what this solar cycle length 10 years in forecast mean. I think it might be solar cycle minimum level activity rather than strictly solar cycle minimum. Also as i have said solar cycle length on average is 11 years, if forecast is 10 years solar cycle length would be 1 year shorter than average, which would be sign strong solar cycle which solar cycle 24 is not as solar cycle 24 is weak solar cycle.

We are still going toward solar cycle, altough decline speed have declined from last month. Now we don’t have forecasted recovery but slow decline toward solar cycle minimum. This was quite big update on sun overall situation, so maybe take little bit get used to it. Those are forecast i think shouldn’t be taken guaranteed as forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#3

Hi

Looks like image which i tried to load here didn’t load here, it loaded it when i wrote message, i guess this system changed it somehow. Also image seems to be bigger in size than this space here because of empty space left and right of this text. I tried to get image here now but it didn’t work right way, image would be smaller than normal which would deduct image readable quality, so i think i just wrote direct link here to site where you can see that image : http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/6 .

Image is on the end of that site, sorry for inconvience for techinal problems in this image thing. Explanation is same as i wrote earlier.


#4

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for april 2017 is 24,9. October 2017 solar activity was quite low, monthly sunspot number which don’t have that 6 months delay was 13,2 which is lowest number after april 2010. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered. Decline speed increased from last month 0,8 to this month 0,9. Forecast was 25,3 so we got 0,4 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 0,8 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 months () showing change from last month : 24,1 (-0,6), 24,1 (-0,6), 23,9 (-0,6), 23,4 (-0,5) 23,2 (-0,3) 22,6. Last month is new in list. Last month we had 2,3 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,3 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2018. First 12 forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers which have e character after number. I have now added () which show change from last month forecast.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 27.8 26.5 25.8 24.9 24.1e (-0,6) 24.1e (-0,6) 23.9e (-0,6) 23.4e (-0,5) 23.2e (-0,3) 22.6e (-0,2) 21.9e (-0,1) 21.7e (0,0)
2018 21.5e (+0,1) 20.6e (+0,1) 18.6e (+0,1) 17.4e (+0,8) 17.0 (+1,2) 16.1 (+0,9) 15.4 (+0,6) 14.8 (+0,2) 14.3 (0,0) 14.0 (0,0) 13.7 (+0,4) 13.2 (+0,3)

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to january 2019, solar cycle lenth 10,1 years or 121 months, which is 1 month longer than last month when it was 10,0 years or 120 months. That is 5,3 years or 64 months rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have already reached solar cycle maximum so it is same as last month, solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is 4,8 years or 57 months, when it was 4,7 years or 56 months last month.

Above forecast for december 2018 is now 13,2, when last month it was 12,9 so it is 0,3 higher than last month meaning forecast think we are declining toward solar cycle minimum slower speed than last month. This is in line with that solar cycle length got 1 month longer than last month forecast. Solar cycle length forecast is shorter than average still, but it changed direction when it last month deducted solar cycle length. Above forecast show forecast numbers for 2018 increased from last month, i think it might occurred because solar cycle length increased so it might give more time for decline time if decline speed is slower. Overall situation didn’t changed much from last month, we got new lowered forecast and new increased solar cycle length. It might be also noteworthy that last month solar activity was quite low, but solar activity can go up and down month by month so better not to pay too much attention just 1 month data. We still have that steady 2 months in forecast which we had last month, it is different thing if that happens or not. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#5

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. I correct one thing in last message, i wrote “Let’s update solar cycle situation now.” it should have been let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. Forgot wrote one word from it, altought it didn’t change message what i wrote. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is which is smoothed sunspot number for may 2017 is 23,4. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered. Decline speed increased from last month 0,9 to this month 1,5. Forecast was 24,1 so we got 0,7 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 0,6 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 22,8 (-1,3), 22,6 (-1,3), 22,0 (-1,4), 21,8 (-1,4), 21,2 (-1,4), 20,5. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 2,3 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,9 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2018. First 12 forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number numbers which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2017 27.8 26.5 25.8 24.9 23.4 22.8e (-1,3) 22.6e (-1,3) 22.0e (-1,4) 21.8e (-1,4) 21.2e (-1,4) 20.5e (-1,4) 20.3e (-1,4)
2018 20.0e (-1,5) 19.1e (-1,5) 17.1e (-1,5) 15.9e (-1,5) 16.3e (-0,7) 15.9 (-0,2) 15.2 (-0,2) 14.7 (-0,1) 14.2 (-0,1) 13.9 (-0,1) 13.7 (0,0) 13.2 (0,0)

Text forecast was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to january 2019. Last month we had 2 months steady same SSN forecast beginning next month, now in new forecast that steady forecast is cancelled and decline continue in forecast.

Above forecast for december 2018 we have same 13,2 number which we had last month, so forecast think we are declining slower speed toward solar cycle minimum now. Last month 2018 forecasted numbers were increased, looks like this month solar activity was so low that 2018 numbers are now mostly decreased as can be seen above numbers but i think it is too early to say much about those at this moment bearing in mind that 6 months forecast are not always right. They can still change before we get that data as SSN have that 6 month delay. It was quite big amount how much smaller SSN we got than forecasted, so forecast numbers changed more now than last month. We can also note that we see another forecasted recovery in 12 months lasting 1 month with 0,4 increase, but i think it is not fourth forecasted recovery in that way i have earlier said because earlier i thought them in next 6 months not 12 months so it is not same that way also it is further away, it is too early to say can it happen or not. We got new lowered forecast, 2 months steady number forecast was cancelled and also another forecasted recovery came in forecast. It is different thing if those forecast come true, forecast are not always correct. Overall situation changed little bit more this month last month as forecasted numbers changed more than last month, it remains to be seen how su


#6

Hi

Looks like i send message little too early, message should have continued it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#7

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. Before going in to solar data, last year one prediction for next solar cycle 25 had solar cycle maximum 63 ±11,3. It is weaker than our current solar cycle which had maximum 116,4, it says it is comparable dalton minimum according prediction, just for mention it now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for june 2017 is 22,3. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered. Decline speed decreased from last month 1,5 to this month 1,1. Forecast was 22,8 so we got 0,5 smaller than forecasted number. We are now 1 year and 6 months from solar cycle minimum based on forecast. Next month we have 0,7 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 21,6 (-1,0), 21,0 (-1,0), 20,6 (-1,2), 20,0 (-1,2), 19,2 (-1,3), 18,9. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 2,9 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 3,4 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2018. First 12 forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot sunspot numbers which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2017 27.8 26.5 25.8 24.9 23.4 22.3 21.6e (-1,0) 21.0e (-1,0) 20.6e (-1,2) 20.0e (-1,2) 19.2e (-1,3) 18.9e (-1,4)
2018 18.6e (-1,4) 17.7e (-1,4) 15.7e (-1,4) 14.5e (-1,4) 14.8e (-1,5) 15.3e (-0,6) 14.8 (-0,4) 14.3 (-0,4) 13.9 (-0,3) 13.7 (-0,2) 13.2 (-0,5) 12.9 (-0,3)

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to december 2018, solar cycle length 10,0 years or 120 months, which is 1 month shorter than last month when it was 10,1 years or 121 months. That is 5,3 years or 64 months rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have have already reached solar cycle maximum so it is same as last month, solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is 4,7 years or 56 months, when it was 4,8 years or 57 months last month.

Above forecast forecast for december 2018 is now 12,9, which is 0,3 smaller than last month, this changed direction now as earlier it raised that number. All forecasted numbers were now lowered as can be seen above numbers. It may be seen as a hint that number got lowered that we are continuing faster speed toward solar cycle than forecasted. We can also see that we have that same forecasted recovery than last month but now it duration is 2 months which is 1 month longer than last month and now it is 0,8 when last month it was 0,4 increase beginning 11 months from now. It is somewhat alarming we have this forecasted recovery, as earlier forecasted recovery has not materialized. I mean i am little doubtful about if this recovery happen actually based on how that earlier forecasted recovery didn’t happen, but i guess it is good to keep that possibility open just in case if that happens although i guess chances that to happen is no good as we are going toward solar cycle minimum.

I may mention that when we began solar cycle 24 december 2008 SSN was 2,2 so we are not yet that low. Overall situation changed little bit from last month, this forecast is divided two ways first it increased decline speed for next 6 months as sun activity has been quite low last month, but it also made that forecasted recovery 2 months after it continues declining toward solar cycle minimum. Another sign of that we are declining faster toward solar cycle minimum than forecasted that above list number for december 2018 got lower now. I think that forecasted recovery needs to taken with cautions as forecast are not always correct. Sun activity was quite low last month, so it seems we are declining now faster toward solar cycle minimum than last month. This month we got lowered forecast, 1 month shorter solar cycle length forecast. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#8

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. Before continuing last time i said june 2017 SSN was 22,3, now june 2017 SSN is 22,2. It is now 0,1 smaller than last month, i have said earlier sometimes this happens that SSN change 0,1 next month i don’t know why but i guess someone send data later which are taken in account next month as numbers are counted monthly or there is slight chance in calculations which reflect that number. Many months before that also changed but for simplicity i don’t correct those. Those are just guessing, i don’t know. New SSN for july 2017 is 21,0. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered. 2018 Began quite low solar activity as january 2018 sun was without sunspot for 15 days, one site says 1 day more but i use same source which i counted days without sunspot so i use that number. Decline speed increased from last month 1,1 to this month 1,2. Forecast was 21,6 so we got 0,6 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 1,2 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 19,8 (-1,2), 19,3 (-1,3), 18,5 (-1,5), 17,6 (-1,6), 17,3 (-1,6), 17,0. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 3,4 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 4,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to november 2018. First 12 forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.8e (-1,2) 19.3e (-1,3) 18.5e (-1,5) 17.6e (-1,6) 17.3e (-1,6)
2018 17.0e (-1,6) 16.2e (-1,5) 14.2e (-1,5) 12.9e (-1,6) 13.2e (-1,6) 15.1e (-0,2) 14.9e (+0,1) 14.6 (+0,3) 13.9 (0,0) 13.3 (-0,4) 12.9 (-0,3)

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to november 2018, solar cycle length 9,9 years or 119 months, which is 1 month shorter than last month when it was 10,0 years or 120 months. That is 5,3 years or 64 months rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have already reached solar cycle maximum so it is same as last month, solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is 4,6 years or 55 months, when it was 4,7 years or 56 months last month.

Above forecast is now for november 2018, when it was december 2018 last month, that should be noted. There is no forecast for december 2018 now. We are now 1 year and 4 months from solar cycle minimum based on forecast. Forecasted number is same as last month 12,9 but is now 1 month earlier than last month. Above forecasted numbers 2 got higher than last month, others got lower or stay same as last month as can be above numbers. We still have that same 2 months forecasted recovery than last month but now it is 2,2 when it was 0,8 last month beginning 10 months from now. It is somewhat concern to have this recovery in forecast as earlier forecasted recovery have not materialized, but i guess it is possible to have that recovery but it is wise to be little doubtful about it based on past solar activity and also should note that we are going to toward solar cycle minimum.

It is little bit concern that that forecasted recovery got so much higher than last month. It remains me earlier forecast when forecasted recovery got higher and higher month by month when it finally cancelled altogether and all numbers got lower and decline continued toward solar cycle minimum. This situation is not as bad as then but that higher forecasted recovery is little step toward that direction, if we don’t get higher solar activity.

This month we got new lowered forecast, higher forecasted recovery new solar cycle length forecast and 1 month shorter forecast. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month. Forecast is two divided as next 6 month decline speed increased but 2018 is declining slower speed as can be seen in forecast. That we have one month shorter forecast than last month can be seen that way it is difficult to forecast solar cycle minimum so they look how solar activity continues, as in past forecast haven’t doing so good, many months got lower than forecasted number. Solar activity was quite low last month so forecast was lowered. That solar cycle length was deducted by 1 month can be seen that we are declining faster than forecasted toward solar cycle minimum. Also it might mean forecast think solar cycle minimum is coming earlier than forecasted, if we don’t get higher solar activity. It is good to remember forecast are not always right, so it wise to take certain caution about of those forecast. It remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#9

Thanks for your good work. I follow part of it. Knowing somewhere in future a solar maximum awaits us.


#10

BlueBerry hi

You wrote " Thanks for your work. I follow part of it. Knowing somewhere in future a solar maximum awaits us".

Thank you for supportive message. I may correct little bit you it is solar cycle maximum not solar maximum as you wrote it if we take it correctly but i guess you meant it you just forgot 1 word from it. Next solar cycle maximum is coming after current solar cycle 24 and when it reach maximum. It takes some time to reach next solar cycle maximum. It is forecasted next solar cycle is weaker than current solar cycle, althought some may think sun ay loss sunspots in future if sun magnetic field weakens too much. If we think solar cycle minimum is in 2018 and rise from solar cycle minimum to maximum is 4 years as in average that would put solar cycle maximum in 2022, but some may think next solar cycle is weak and longer than average and next solar cycle maximum could then happen later than that. We don’t know exactly when next solar cycle maximum happens, i think only time will tell if we want exact right answer when next solar cycle maximum occur. Those numbers is just numbers and i think shouldn’t take granted only to give some view of sun situation as you mentioned solar cycle maximum.


#11

Sure, thanks, Dennis. I don’t mind being corrected. I’ll try and follow your postings.
There is a group on LinkedIn that I have visited a few times…but not regularly…don’t have the time.
You might be part of that group for all I know.
Max (a.k.a. Blueberry)


#12

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. Forecasted recovery is now cancelled. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for august 2017 is 19,5. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered. Solar activity was higher in february 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 10 days. Decline speed increased from last month 1,2 to this month 1,5. Forecast was 19,8 so we got 0,3 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 1,0 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 months () showing change from last month : 18,5 (-0,8), 17,2 (-1,3), 15,8 (-1,8), 14,8 (-2,5), 13,9 (-3,1), 12,3. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 4,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 7,2 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast-

2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.5 18.5e (-0,8) 17.2e (-1,3) 15.8e (-1,8) 14.8e (-2,5)
2018 13.9e (-3,1) 12.3e (-3,9) 9.6e (-4,6) 7.6e (-5,3) 7.2e (-6,0) 7.0e (-8,1) 6.8e (-8,1) 6.4e (-8,2) 5.3 (-8,6) 4.9 (-8,4) 4.7 (-8,2) 4.6
2019 4.1 3.5 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.6

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to april 2019, solar cycle length 10,3 years or 124 months, which is 5 months longer than last month when it was 9,9 years or 119 months. This is 5,3 years or 64 months rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have alread reached solar cycle maximum, solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum tot solar cycle minimum is 5,0 years or 60 months, when it was 4,6 years or 55 months last month.

This forecast is longer than last month and now it show solar cycle 24 forecasted smoothed sunspot number to end and beginning next solar cycle. All forecasted numbers got lowered from last month. This forecast show minimum of 2,0 which is 0,2 lower than solar cycle minimum 2,2 when solar cycle 24 began december 2008.


#13

Hi

I got little busy last time when i wrote my message, so i write analyze it in this message. Sun has been now 25 days without sunspot this year counting first 2 months this year. We didn’t reach forecast as i said earlier and forecasted decline speed increased quite a lot from last month forecast as can be seen above. Last month we had forecast for november 2018, now we got longer forecast to december 2018. This forecast now let us see solar cycle minimum and little bit of beginning of next solar cycle. Last month we had 2 month forecasted recovery which has been now removed from forecast.

New forecast has moved solar cycle minimum from November 2018 to april 2019 which is right direction in my opinion, as this solar cycle 24 is weak solar cycle. I didn’t believe much that we can have that kind of recovery as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. New forecast is now 10,3 years or 124 months, it is still shorter than average of 11 years of solar cycle length but last month forecast was 1 month shorter solar cycle length than earlier month so now it changed direction and solar cycle length is now 5 months longer than last month. It is good to see forecast was lowered quite much from last month as many months we haven’t reached forecast and forecast have been too optimist about solar activity many months (If counting those months too we didn’t reach forecast which was in my disappeared message).

That solar cycle minimum is lower than solar cycle 24 when it began in december 2008 is sign that this solar cycle is weak. Just to mention it above forecast beginning for next solar cycle it is forecast to increase faster than this solar cycle which i doubt little bit, as it has been forecasted next solar cycle to be weaker than current solar cycle but i think it is too early to say much about detail next solar cycle at this time.

This month we got lowered forecast and finally IPS forecast admit their forecast has been too optimist and increased solar cycle length. I have been thinking their forecast is not correct about solar cycle length and been doubtful about their forecasted recovery which has been now removed from forecast. But i have been little cautious about my message just in case if we get that kind of recovery but looks like it will not happen as there is no more that kind of recovery in forecast. Many months forecast has been too optimist and got lowered in new forecast. Solar cycle length increase is right direction but not enough for making solar cycle 24 to average solar cycle length 11 years which would have been december 2019. This was quite big chance in forecast from last month. Now we just go toward solar cycle minimum. It is good to remember that forecast are not always correct, so it good to take some caution about of those forecast. It remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#14

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. Additional to my last message solar cycle 24 length changed from 2018 year to 2019 year. Forecasted decline speed for next 6 month increased from last month is little concern as SSN can’t go below zero and decline speed should could slower but looks like solar activity was that low that forecast was needed to go lower. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for september 2017 is 18,2. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered. Solar activity was lower in march 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 25 days. Sun has been 50 days without sunspot this year counting first 3 months this year. Decline speed decreased from last month 1,5 to this month 1,3. Forecast was 18,5 so we got 0,3 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 1,5 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 months () showing change from last month : 16,7 (-0,5) 15,3 (-0,5) 14,3 (-0,5) 13,4 (-0,5) 11,8 (-0,5) 9,2. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 7,2 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 9,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.5 18.2 16.7e (-0,5) 15.3e (-0,5) 14.3e (-0,5)
2018 13.4e (-0,5) 11.8e (-0,5) 9.2e (-0,4) 7.3e (-0,3) 6.9e (-0,3) 6.7e (-0,3) 6.5e (-0,3) 6.1e (-0,3) 5.9e (+0,6) 5.3 (+0,4) 4.9 (+0,2) 4.7 (+0,1)
2019 4.5 (+0,4) 4.1 (+0,6) 3.4 (+0,8) 2.6 (+0,6) 2.0 (-0,2) 2.2 (-0,2) 2.4 (-0,3) 2.7 (-0,4) 3.1 (-0,5) 3.6 (-0,5) 4.1 (-0,8) 4.9 (-0,7)

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to may 2019, solar cycle length 10,4 years or 125 months, which is 1 month longer than last month when it was 10,3 years or 124 months. This is 5,3 years or 64 months rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have already reached solar cycle maximum, solar cycle decline from solar maximum to solar cycle minimum is 5,1 years or 61 months when it was 5,0 years or 60 months last month.

We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered as solar activity was lower than forecasted. Next 6 months forecasted decline speed increased from last month which is little concern as it should slower as it can’t go below 0, but that might be sign that we are going toward solar cycle minimum faster than forecasted. New forecast have 1 month longer forecast than last month which is right direction in my opinion but forecasted 10,4 year or 125 months is still shorter than average solar cycle length of 11 years. Forecast is now solar cycle 24 lasting to may 2019, but 11 years length would have been december 2019. Above forecast last month mentioned that next solar cycle is forecasted rise faster than this solar cycle which i was little doubtful as next solar cycle is forecasted to be weaker than this solar cycle, is now changed that way next solar cycle rise slower than this solar cycle, which i think is right thing to do as that would be more of sign that next solar cycle is weaker than current solar cycle. Above forecast have 12 months which got lowered forecast and 8 months got higher forecast than last month during solar cycle solar cycle 24. Next solar cycle numbers got all lowered. This month we got new forecast, longer solar cycle length forecast. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month, but longer solar cycle is change to right direction. Forecast are not always right, so it is good to take some caution about of those forecast. It remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#15

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for October 2017 is 16,6. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast raised. Solar activity was higher in april 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 18 days. Sun has been 68 days without sunspot this year counting first 4 months this year. Decline speed increased from last month 1,3 to this month 1,6. Forecast was 16,7 so we got 0,1 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 1,3 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 months () showing change from last month : 15,3 (0,0), 14,5 (+0,2), 13,6 (+0,2), 12,2 (+0,4), 9,7 (+0,5), 7,9. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 9,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 8,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.5 18.2 16.6 15.3e (0,0) 14.5e (+0,2)
2018 13.6e (+0,2) 12.2e (+0,4) 9.7e (+0,5) 7.9e (+0,6) 7.6e (+0,7) 7.4e (+0,7) 7.1e (+0,6) 6.7e (+0,6) 6.5e (+0,6) 6.3e (+1,0) 5.3 (+0,4) 4.5 (-0,2)
2019 4.1 (-0,4) 3.9 (-0,2) 3.7 (+0,3) 3.4 (+0,8) 3.1 (+1,1) 2.4 (+0,2) 2.0 (+0,4) 2.2 (-0,5) 2.4 (-0,7) 2.7 (-0,9) 3.1 (-1,0) 3.6 (-1,3)

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to july 2019, solar cycle length 10,6 years or 127 months, which is 2 months longer than last month when it was 10,4 years or 125 months. This is 5,3 years or 64 months rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have already reached solar cycle maximum, solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is 5,2 years or 63 months when it was 5,1 years or 61 months last month.

Above forecast show 17 months which got higher forecast and 3 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24. Next solar cycle numbers got all lowered. We didn’t reached forecast but forecast was mostly increased, i think it might be that we are declining too fast toward solar cycle minimum if considering that solar cycle length is increased.

Forecasted decline speed for next year 6 months declined little bit from last month which is probably right thing as this might give more decline time toward solar cycle minimum. Forecast is now solar cycle 24 lasting to july 2019, but it is still shorter than 11 years length which would have been december 2019. It is right direction still i think. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month. Forecast are not alwayss right, so it is good to take some caution about of those forecast. It remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#16

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for november 2017 is 15,4. We did reach forecast and forecast was raised. Solar activity was higher in may 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 10 days. Sun has been 78 days without sunspot this year counting first 5 months this year. Decline speed decreased from last month 1,6 to this month 1,2. Forecast was 15,3 so we got 0,1 higher than forecasted number. Next month we have 0,6 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 14,8 (+0,3), 13,9 (+0,3), 12,5 (+0,3), 9,9 (+0,2), 8,1 (+0,2), 7,8. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 8,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 7,6 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.5 18.2 16.6 15.4 14.8e (+0,3)
2018 13.9e (+0,3) 12.5e (+0,3) 9.9e (+0,2) 8.1e (+0,2) 7.8e (+0,2) 7.6e (+0,2) 7.4e (+0,3) 7.0e (+0,4) 6.8e (+0,3) 6.6e (+0,3) 5.9e (+0,6) 4.5 (0,0)
2019 4.1 (0,0) 3.9 (0,0) 3.7 (0,0) 3.4 (0,0) 3.1 (0,0) 2.4 (0,0) 2.0 (0,0) 2.2 (0,0) 2.4 (0,0) 2.7 (0,0) 3.1 (0,0) 3.6 (0,0)

Solar cycle length forecast was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to july 2019. Solar cycle length 10,6 years or 127 months. This is shorter than average solar cycle length of 11 years.

Forecasted decline speed for next 6 months decreased from last month as can be seen above, i think it is right thing to do as that might give more time decline toward solar cycle minimum. Above forecast have 12 months which got higher forecast than last month during solar cycle 24, next solar cycle forecast didn’t change from last month forecast. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month, we got new forecast which was little bit higher than last month. This was quite small update and it seems there is not much more say about other than that new forecast. It remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#17

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new new SSN an new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for december 2017 is 15,1. We are now 9 years in solar cycle 24. We did reach forecast and forecast was raised. Solar activity was higher june 2018 than last month, sun was without sunpot for 11 days. Sun has been 89 days without sunspot this year counting first 6 month this year. That is 49% of days without sunspot for first 6 months this year. Decline speed decreased from last month 1,2 decline to this month 0,3. Forecast was 14,8. so we got 0,3 higher than forecasted number. Next month we have 0,6 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 14,5 (+0,6), 13,1 (+0,6), 10,5 (+0,6), 8,7 (+0,6), 8,4 (+0,6), 8,3. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 7,6 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 6,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot umber which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.5e (+0,6) 13.1e (+0,6) 10.5e (+0,6) 8.7e (+0,6) 8.4e (+0,6) 8.3e (+0,7) 8.0e (+0,6) 7.6e (+0,6) 7.4e (+0,6) 7.2e (+0,6) 6.5e (+0,6) 5.6e (+1,1)
2019 4.0 (-0,1) 3.8 (-0,1) 3.7 (0,0) 3.4 (0,0) 3.1 (0,0) 2.4 (0,0) 2.0 (0,0) 2.2 (0,0) 2.4 (0,0) 2.7 (0,0) 3.1 (0,0) 3.6 (0,0)

Solar cycle length was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to july 2019. Solar cycle length 10,6 years or 127 months. This is shorter than average solar cycle length of 11 years.

Above forecast now have 2018 and 2019 years in forecast as we have moved more forward in time, also SSN which is smoothed sunspot number have 6 month delay just to remind that same time. Above forecast have 12 months in 2018 which got higher forecast than last month and 2019 have 2 months which got lower forecast than last month during solar cycle 24, next solar cycle forecast didn’t change from last month forecast. I also notified above forecast have quite big chance from last month 2018 to first month 2019 considering that we are toward solar cycle minimum drop that much in one month when considering how low we are in numbers looks somewhat doubtful for me. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month, we got new SSN and new forecast. Forecast chance was little bit more than last month, 2018 got higher forecast than last month forecast, 2019 got 2 month lower than last month forecast but solar cycle length remained same as last month. This was quite small update and it seems there is not much say about about other than new forecast. It remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#18

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for january 2018 is 14,3. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast lowered on some months and raised on some months. Solar activity was lower july 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 30 days. Sun has been 119 days without sunspot this year, counting first 7 month this year. That is 56% of days without sunspot for first 7 months this year. Decline speed increased from last month 0,3 decline to this month 0,8. Forecast was 14,5, so we got 0,2 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 1,7 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 12,6 (-0,5), 10,2 (-0,3), 8,5 (-0,2), 8,4 (0,0), 8,4 (+0,1), 8,3. Last month in new in the list. Last month we had 6,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 6,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.3 12.6e (-0,5), 10.2e (-0,3), 8.5e (-0,2), 8.4e (0,0), 8.4e (+0,1), 8.3e (+0,3), 8.0e (+0,4), 7.8e (+0,4), 7.6e (+0,4), 7.0e (+0,5), 6.0e (+0,4),
2019 5.6e (+1,6), 4.7 (+0,9), 4.1 (+0,4), 3.5 (+0,1), 3.2 (+0,1), 2.9 (+0,5), 2.7 (+0,7), 2.3 (+0,1), 2.0 (-0,4), 2.2 (-0,5), 2.4 (-0,7), 2.7 (-0,9),

We got new text forecast, it shows now solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019, solar cycle length 10,8 years or 129 months, which is 2 months longer than last month forecast when it was 10,6 years or 127 months. This is 5,3 years or 64 month rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum as we have already reaches solar cycle maximum, solar cycle decline from solar maximum to solar cycle minimum is 5,4 years or 65 months when it was 5,2 years or 63 months last month.

Above forecast show 15 months which got higher forecast and 3 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle numbers got all lowered.

I wrote last month that there was quite bit change from last month 2018 to first month 2019, looks like i wrote word chance in my last message when i meant word change, that big change has been now been corrected in new forecast which is good thing so decline speed toward solar cycle minimum is more steady.

We got little bigger update now than last month. Forecasted decline speed for next 6 month decreased from last month which is right thing to do in my opinion so we don’t reach so fast solar cycle minimum. That forecast now have 2 months have same forecasted number. It is right thing in my opinion that big change last month 2018 to first month 2019 we had last month have been now corrected in new forecast. New forecast increased solar cycle 24 length from july 2019 to september 2019 which is right thing to do, but it is still shorter than average of 11 year length which would have been december 2019, but it is still toward right direction. I can also mention that in new forecast decline from solar solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now longer than rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, last month rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was longer than decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum. If you remember solar cycle length on average is 11 years, which is 4 years rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, 7 years decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum. New forecast now have right order of solar cycle length, decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now longer than rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, it is not much longer in forecast, but it is now in right way in forecast. Overall situation changed little bit more than last month, we got new SSN, new forecast. Looks like forecast think we are declining too fast toward solar cycle minimum as forecast was mostly raised from last month, we are still toward solar cycle minimum, decline speed is just slower toward solar cycle minimum. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#19

How can this be applied to growing fruit?


#20

Dimitri_7a hi

Current solar cycle is weak solar cycle, in history weak sun has lead to colder weather in world. Colder weather can may have impact on growing fruit as you asked for it. Maybe little too simplified way to say it, but it something to think about, not sure thing although. It is good to remember natural variability from year to year.

Hi

I need to correct my last message little bit. I wrote " Above forecast show 15 months which got higher forecast and 3 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast". I counted lowered months not correctly, it got 4 months lower during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast, not 3 months as i said in my last message. Sorry for the complication but i think it is better to correct it as i notified that i counted not correctly lowered months, increased months is still correct number during solar cycle 24.