Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for february 2018 is 12,6. We did reach forecast and forecast was mostly same than last month. Solar activity was higher august 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 13 days. Sun has been 132 days without sunspot this year, counting first 8 month this year. That is 54% of days without sunspot for first 8 months this year. Decline speed increased from last month 0,8 decline to this this month 1,7. Forecast was 12,6, so we reached forecast. Next month we have 2,5 decline forecast.
Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 10,1 (-0,1), 8,5 (0,0), 8,4 (0,0), 8,4 (0,0), 8,3 (0,0), 8,0. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 6,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 4,6 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.
Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.
2018 14.3 12.6 10.1e (-0,1), 8.5e (0,0), 8.4e (0,0), 8.4e (0,0), 8.3e (0,0), 8.0e (0,0), 7.8e (0,0), 7.6e (0,0), 7.0e (0,0), 6.0e (0,0),
2019 5.5e (-0,1), 5.3e (+0,6), 4.1 (0,0), 3.5 (0,0), 3.2 (0,0), 2.9 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0), 2.3 (0,0), 2.0 (0,0), 2.2 (0,0), 2.4 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0)
Solar cycle length forecast was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019.
Above forecast show 1 month which got higher forecast and 2 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle number was same as last month.
Forecast was mostly same as last month as can be seen above.
This was quite small update, we got new forecast which is is mostly same as last month. Forecasted decline speed for next 6 month decreased from last month forecast. There is not much more to talk about other than giving that new forecast. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.