Solar cycle 24 update,


#21

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for february 2018 is 12,6. We did reach forecast and forecast was mostly same than last month. Solar activity was higher august 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 13 days. Sun has been 132 days without sunspot this year, counting first 8 month this year. That is 54% of days without sunspot for first 8 months this year. Decline speed increased from last month 0,8 decline to this this month 1,7. Forecast was 12,6, so we reached forecast. Next month we have 2,5 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 10,1 (-0,1), 8,5 (0,0), 8,4 (0,0), 8,4 (0,0), 8,3 (0,0), 8,0. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 6,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 4,6 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.3 12.6 10.1e (-0,1), 8.5e (0,0), 8.4e (0,0), 8.4e (0,0), 8.3e (0,0), 8.0e (0,0), 7.8e (0,0), 7.6e (0,0), 7.0e (0,0), 6.0e (0,0),
2019 5.5e (-0,1), 5.3e (+0,6), 4.1 (0,0), 3.5 (0,0), 3.2 (0,0), 2.9 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0), 2.3 (0,0), 2.0 (0,0), 2.2 (0,0), 2.4 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0)

Solar cycle length forecast was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019.

Above forecast show 1 month which got higher forecast and 2 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle number was same as last month.

Forecast was mostly same as last month as can be seen above.

This was quite small update, we got new forecast which is is mostly same as last month. Forecasted decline speed for next 6 month decreased from last month forecast. There is not much more to talk about other than giving that new forecast. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#22

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. It looks like my image which i tried earlier to load here, it is now working and now show that image of solar cycle 24. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for march 2018 is 9,9. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered on some months. We are now below 10 smoothed sunspot number. Solar activity was lower september 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 24 days. Sun has been 156 days without sunspot this year, counting first 9 month this year. Decline speed increased from last month 1,7 to this month 2,7. Forecast was 10,1 so we got 0,2 smaller than forecast number. Next month we have 1,9 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 8,0 (-0,5), 7,8 (-0,6), 7,8 (-0,6), 7,7 (-0,6), 7,4 (-0,6), 7,2. Last month in new in the list. Last month we had 4,6 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 8.0e (-0,5), 7.8e (-0,6), 7.8e (-0,6), 7.7e (-0,6), 7.4e (-0,6), 7.2e (-0,6), 7.1e (-0,5), 6.4e (-0,6), 5.5e (-0,5),
2019 5.0e (-0,5), 4.8e (-0,5), 4.5e (+0,4), 3.6 (+0,1), 3.2 (0,0), 2.9 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0), 2.3 (0,0), 2.0 (0,0), 2.2 (0,0), 2.4 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0)

Solar cycle length forecast was same same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019.

Above forecast show 2 months which got higher than forecast and 11 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle number was same as last month.

This was little bit bigger chance than last month forecast as more forecasted months was changed in forecast than last month. Forecast decline speed for next 6 month decreased from last month forecast. Not much to talk other than giving that new forecast about this situation. We are still going toward solar cycle minimum althought slower speed than last month. Forecast was are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#23

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for april 2018 is 7.9. We are now 4 years from solar cycle maximum toward solar cycle minimum. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered on most months remaining for this solar cycle. Solar activity was higher october 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 21 days. Sun has been 177 days without sunspot this year, counting first 10 month this year. That is 58% days without sunspot for first 10 months. Decline speed decreased from last month 2,7 to this month 2,0. Next month we have 0,3 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 7,6 (-0,2), 7,6 (-0,2), 7,4 (-0,3), 7,1 (-0,3), 7,0 (-0,2). Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 2,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,1 decline forest for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forcast.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.9 7.6e (-0,2), 7.6e (-0,2), 7.4e (-0,3), 7.1e (-0,3), 7.0e (-0,2), 6.8e (-0,3), 6.2e (-0,2), 5.2e (-0,3),
2019 4.7e (-0,3), 4.5e (-0,3), 4.2e (-0,3), 4.0e (+0,4), 3.2 (0,0), 2.9 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0), 2.3 (0,0), 2.0 (0,0), 2.2 (0,0), 2.4 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0)

Solar cycle length forecast was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019.

Above forecast show 1 month which got higher than forecast and 11 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle number was same as last month.

This was quite small update, we got new forecast which is much smaller decline speed for next 6 month than last month. Not much to talk other than giving that new forecast. We are starting slowly approach solar cycle minimum, so decline speed should get slower as sunspot number can’t go below 0. We are still going toward solar cycle minimum altought slower speed than last month.

Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#24

#25

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. Now we have bigger update, so i may do little bit analysis where we are now as my few last messages didn’t have much information other than giving numbers as situation didn’t chance much from earlier months. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for may 2018 is 7,5. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered on most months for this solar cycle. Solar activity was higher november 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 21 days. I need to mention here last month had 20 days without sunspot number if counting it by numbered sunspots, but if counted by area which have higher than 0 area has 21 days without sunspot last month, i use 21 days without sunspot last month for consistent reason so it is counted same way as earlier months. This was just mentioning it for you so you know. It maybe not big thing, but it is good to know there is that thing last month data. Sun has been 198 days without sunspot this year, counting first 11 month this year. This is 59% days without sunspot for first 11 months. Decline speed decreased from last month 2,0 to this month 0,4. Forecast was 7,6 so we got 0,1 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 0,2 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 7,3 (-0,3), 7,0 (-0,4), 6,5 (-0,6), 6,2 (-0,8), 6,0 (-0,8), 5,3.Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 1,1 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast. I might haven’t mentioned it earlier but if you didn’t see it those months which have () change number after it are forecasted months, earlier numbers are observed numbers. As we haven’t got longer forecast, number of forecasted months has declined.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.9 7.5 7.3e (-0,3), 7.0e (-0,4), 6.5e (-0,6), 6.2e (-0,8), 6.0e (-0,8), 5.3e (-0,9), 4.3e (-0,9),
2019 3.8e (-0,9), 3.5e (-1,0), 3.2e (-1,0), 3.1e (-0,9), 3.0e (-0,2), 2.0 (-0,9), 2.2 (-0,5), 2.4 (+0,1), 2.7 (+0,7), 3.1 (+0,9), 3.6 (+1,2), 4.1 (+1,4)

We got new solar cycle length forecast. New forecast have now solar cycle 24 lasting to june 2019 when last month forecast was this solar cycle lasting to september 2019. New forecast have solar cycle length of 10,5 years or 126 months when last month it was 10,8 years or 129 months. Solar cycle rise from solar cycle minimum to solar maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 months as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now 5,2 years or 62 months, when last month it was 5,4 years or 65 months from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum. I don’t have more time now, i may try to continue tomorrow this update analysis.


#26

Alan, where do you find “straight journalism”? Not at NY Times or Washington Post. Not on MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC or CNN.

Russia Today? BBC? Nope, not even there…it’s slanted too.

Certainly not Yahoo or MSN on the internet…90 percent of daily “news” has a anti-conservative bias on those sources. And, no, not NPR nor “public television”.

I’m not too into Fox News either, haven’t watched it in a month I don’t think…

“Mainstream” media reporting the news is like “mainstream” religion…


#27

Hi

I am back now let’s continue my message. Looks like i made calculation error in my last message, i think i need to correct it. I wrote " Last month we had 1,1 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number". That should be last month we had 1,1 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,2 decline forecast for next 6 month form new number. Sorry for incorrect number last month, now it should be right number for decline speed for next 6 month. I calculated incorrectly next 6 month decline speed in my last message.

Above forecast show 13 months which got lower than forecast and no months got higher forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle numbers was mostly increased.

I may mention that i have read that we have seen some sunspots for next solar cycle. We didn’t begin next solar cycle yet, but it is sign we are transition time to next solar cycle as we are near end of this solar cycle 24.

We got bigger update now than last month. Let’s do some analysis where we are now. We got new forecast which we don’t have 2 same numbers in forecast like we had last month, that is good thing to correct it so we continue now decline toward solar cycle minimum. Looks like solar activity has been lower than forecasted and solar cycle minimum is now forecasted to be june 2019 when it was september 2019 last month forecast. Also decline speed for next 6 months increased from last month. All months during solar cycle 24 in forecast got lower forecast and next solar cycle got 5 months which have higher forecast and 1 month which got lower than last month forecast. This forecast show solar cycle 24 length of 10,5 years or 126 months, which is shorter than average solar cycle length of 11 years. Looks like forecast think now we are declining toward solar cycle minimum faster than last month forecast. Next solar cycle which we have first 6 months in forecast show 2,1 increase, when solar cycle 24 when it began december 2008 for first 6 month increased 1,9, next solar cycle i think could be weaker than current solar cycle so increase speed could be slower than current solar cycle but forecast can change that in future forecast. Solar cycle decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is on average longer than solar cycle increase time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, so this month forecast having shorter decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is somewhat concern. This leaves me thinking are we declining now too fast toward solar cycle minimum as now forecast have now little bit shorter than average solar cycle length, do we have some kind of steady decline toward solar cycle minimum so solar cycle could be increased. Forecast next solar cycle increase looks little bit concern as i think next solar cycle could be weaker than this solar cycle. I see also after last forecast month which have e on it, it has 1,0 decline for next month which is quite big decline at this time of solar cycle, i think that might need to change in future forecast. I think if solar activity increase or stay relatively same level forecast may increased but that depends future solar activity. We got new forecast which is shorter than last month forecast, forecasted have next solar cycle increased speed, current solar cycle decline speed increased. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#28

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for june 2018 is 7,3. We did reach forecast and forecast raised on most months for this solar cycle. Solar activity was lower december 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 23 days. Sun has been 221 days with sunspot 2018. This is 60% of days of year. Decline speed decreased from last month 0,4 to this month 0,2. Next month we have 0,3 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 7,0 (0,0), 6,7 (+0,2), 6,4 (+0,2), 6,2 (+0,2), 5,6 (+0,3), 4,6. Last month is new in the list. Last month 2,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted moth are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.0e (0,0), 6.7e (+0,2), 6.4e (+0,2), 6.2e (+0,2), 5.6e (+0,3), 4.6e (+0,3),
2019 4.1e (+0,3), 3.8e (+0,3), 3.5e (+0,3), 3.3e (+0,2), 3.1e (+0,1), 3.0e (+1,0) 2.3 (+0,1), 2.0 (-0,4) 2.2 (-0,5), 2.4 (-0,7), 2.7 (-0,9), 3.1 (-1,0)

We got new solar cycle length forecast. New forecast have now solar cycle 24 lasting to august 2019 when last month forecast was this solar cycle lasting to june 2019. New forecast have solar cycle length 10,7 years or 128 months when last month it was 10,5 years or 126 months. Solar cycle rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 months as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now 5,3 years or 64 months, when last month it was 5,2 years 62 months.

Above forecast show 12 months which got higher than forecast and 1 month got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle numbers all got lowered.

We got small update now, we got new forecast which show solar cycle 24 lasting to august 2019 when last month forecast solar cycle 24 lasting to june 2019. Forecasted solar cycle length is still shorter than average of 11 years but it is right direction altought. Forecast increased most remaining months of this solar cycle, looks like forecast might think we are declining too fast toward solar cycle minimum so that might give more time decline toward solar cycle minimum. New forecast have now same time for rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum and decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum, when last month forecast had shorter decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum than rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum. Solar cycle rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum on average is 4 years and solar cycle decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum on average is 7 years, so it is in my opinion right direction. Next solar cycle which we have first 4 months in forecast show 1,1 increase, when solar cycle 24 began december 2008 for first 4 months increased 1,1 so last month faster rise in next solar cycle have now been corrected and next solar cycle are now forecasted to rise same speed as this solar cycle for first 4 months, that is in my opinion right direction. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month, altought it was significant update that way it changed direction from last month that it increased solar cycle length if compared last montn solar cycle length forecast. It is good to remember those forecast may change in future too so it might be wise to not get too excited about it. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#29

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast which is now 1 year longer than last month and includes now 2020 year, it also have change from last month solar cycle length forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for july 2018 is 7,1. We did reach forecast and forecast was raised on some months for this solar cycle. Solar activity was higher january 2019 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 16 days. This is 51% of days of year. Decline speed was same as last month 0,2. Next month we have 0,3 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 6,8 (+0,1), 6,4 (0,0), 6,2 (0,0), 5,5 (-0,1), 4,5 (-0,1), 4,1. Last month is new in he list. Last month we had 2,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 3,0 decline forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2020. We got now longer forecast which now have full 2020 year in forecast, so now we see more in future of next solar cycle forecast. As this first month to have 2020 year in forecast i can’t show change from last month forecast for 2020 year so those don’t have () after forecast. I still include them here, so we can look at them. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.8e (+0,1), 6.4e (0,0), 6.2e (0,0), 5.5e (-0,1), 4.5e (-0,1),
2019 4.1e (0,0), 3.9e (+0,1), 3.8e (+0,3), 3.9e (+0,6), 4.0e (+0,9), 4.2e (+1,2), 4.4e (+2,1), 4.1 (+2,1), 4.9 (+2,7), 5.6 (+3,2), 6.4 (+3,7), 7.4 (+4,3)
2020 8.7 10.2 11.8 13.5 15.3 17.5 19.8 22.1 24.5 27.1 30.2 33.9

We got new solar cycle length forecast. New forecast have now solar cycle 24 lasting to march 2019 when last month forecast this solar cycle lasting to august 2019. New forecast have solar cycle length 10,2 years or 122 months when last month it was 10,7 or 128 months. Solar cycle rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 months as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now 4,8 years or 58 months, when last month it was 5,3 years or 64 months. I may mention that in this new forecast show lowest forecasted number march 2019 but solar cycle 24 began december 2008 adding forecasted solar cycle length to that give february 2019 so there is one month difference, don’t know where that difference came from.

Above forecast show 3 months which got higher than forecast and 2 month got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle numbers all got lowered which had () showing change from last month forecast.

We got quite big update now, we got new forecast which show solar cycle 24 lasting to march 2019 when last month forecast solar cycle 24 lasting to august 2019. Forecast solar cycle length is shorter than average of 11 years. We are less than 1 year from solar cycle minimum, lowest forecasted number. New forecast has increased lowest number quite big way from last month forecast when it was 2,0, now it is 3,8 which is 90% higher than last month. This is quite big chance from last month, solar cycle 24 begin december 2008 with number 2,2 now forecast is 3,8 which is higher number to begin next solar cycle, last month forecast was begin with lower number so this new new forecast changed direction in that way. Also next solar cycle forecast got increased quite a lot, change from last month is bigger than was change last in last month forecast. Maybe forecast think we are near solar cycle minimum, this shorter than average solar cycle length is somewhat concern in my opinion as weak solar cycle should last longer than average solar cycle length.

We got longer forecast which now have year 2020 in it, so we may look at closer it. We have now all forecasted numbers of solar cycle 24 with e character, after solar cycle minimum forecast we have four months with e character which show 0,5 increase after solar cycle minimum. When this solar cycle began it increased 1,1 for first four months so next solar cycle increase is slower in forecast but it is only four first months so i think not too much conclusion should be do with so short time. This looks somewhat right that way next solar cycle might be weaker than current solar cycle. If we look first 12 months of next solar cycle forecast, forecast show increase 8, when solar cycle 24 began it increased 10,5 first 12 months. This also looks somewhat right as next solar cycle maybe weaker than current solar cycle. If we look forecast to december 2020 which is 21 months from solar cycle minimum it shows increase of 30,1 when solar cycle 24 began it increased for first 21 months 27,3. This looks bigger increase for next solar cycle than current solar cycle maybe forecast think raise time to solar cycle maximum increases in future. I think it is too early for think next solar cycle in too much detail, those are just some thinking which came to mind.

In forecast after e i see one decline month after solar cycle minimum, just to mention it. This month forecast main thing is that is the higher minimum in forecast going to happen actually? I thought as next solar cycle might be weaker than current one, solar minimum could be lower. Altought i can’t say that this forecast is not right, this forecast is just quite much different from last month forecast. What if we decrease to those number in forecast time but decline further in future? I don’t know how accurate this forecast is. I think it is still good to get longer forecast, so we see more in future what might be more future solar activity, at least something about to think. We are still declining toward solar cycle minimum. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.