Solar cycle 24 update,


#21

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for february 2018 is 12,6. We did reach forecast and forecast was mostly same than last month. Solar activity was higher august 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 13 days. Sun has been 132 days without sunspot this year, counting first 8 month this year. That is 54% of days without sunspot for first 8 months this year. Decline speed increased from last month 0,8 decline to this this month 1,7. Forecast was 12,6, so we reached forecast. Next month we have 2,5 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 10,1 (-0,1), 8,5 (0,0), 8,4 (0,0), 8,4 (0,0), 8,3 (0,0), 8,0. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 6,0 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 4,6 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.3 12.6 10.1e (-0,1), 8.5e (0,0), 8.4e (0,0), 8.4e (0,0), 8.3e (0,0), 8.0e (0,0), 7.8e (0,0), 7.6e (0,0), 7.0e (0,0), 6.0e (0,0),
2019 5.5e (-0,1), 5.3e (+0,6), 4.1 (0,0), 3.5 (0,0), 3.2 (0,0), 2.9 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0), 2.3 (0,0), 2.0 (0,0), 2.2 (0,0), 2.4 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0)

Solar cycle length forecast was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019.

Above forecast show 1 month which got higher forecast and 2 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle number was same as last month.

Forecast was mostly same as last month as can be seen above.

This was quite small update, we got new forecast which is is mostly same as last month. Forecasted decline speed for next 6 month decreased from last month forecast. There is not much more to talk about other than giving that new forecast. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#22

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. It looks like my image which i tried earlier to load here, it is now working and now show that image of solar cycle 24. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for march 2018 is 9,9. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered on some months. We are now below 10 smoothed sunspot number. Solar activity was lower september 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 24 days. Sun has been 156 days without sunspot this year, counting first 9 month this year. Decline speed increased from last month 1,7 to this month 2,7. Forecast was 10,1 so we got 0,2 smaller than forecast number. Next month we have 1,9 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 8,0 (-0,5), 7,8 (-0,6), 7,8 (-0,6), 7,7 (-0,6), 7,4 (-0,6), 7,2. Last month in new in the list. Last month we had 4,6 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 8.0e (-0,5), 7.8e (-0,6), 7.8e (-0,6), 7.7e (-0,6), 7.4e (-0,6), 7.2e (-0,6), 7.1e (-0,5), 6.4e (-0,6), 5.5e (-0,5),
2019 5.0e (-0,5), 4.8e (-0,5), 4.5e (+0,4), 3.6 (+0,1), 3.2 (0,0), 2.9 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0), 2.3 (0,0), 2.0 (0,0), 2.2 (0,0), 2.4 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0)

Solar cycle length forecast was same same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019.

Above forecast show 2 months which got higher than forecast and 11 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle number was same as last month.

This was little bit bigger chance than last month forecast as more forecasted months was changed in forecast than last month. Forecast decline speed for next 6 month decreased from last month forecast. Not much to talk other than giving that new forecast about this situation. We are still going toward solar cycle minimum althought slower speed than last month. Forecast was are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#23

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for april 2018 is 7.9. We are now 4 years from solar cycle maximum toward solar cycle minimum. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered on most months remaining for this solar cycle. Solar activity was higher october 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 21 days. Sun has been 177 days without sunspot this year, counting first 10 month this year. That is 58% days without sunspot for first 10 months. Decline speed decreased from last month 2,7 to this month 2,0. Next month we have 0,3 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 7,6 (-0,2), 7,6 (-0,2), 7,4 (-0,3), 7,1 (-0,3), 7,0 (-0,2). Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 2,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,1 decline forest for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forcast.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.9 7.6e (-0,2), 7.6e (-0,2), 7.4e (-0,3), 7.1e (-0,3), 7.0e (-0,2), 6.8e (-0,3), 6.2e (-0,2), 5.2e (-0,3),
2019 4.7e (-0,3), 4.5e (-0,3), 4.2e (-0,3), 4.0e (+0,4), 3.2 (0,0), 2.9 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0), 2.3 (0,0), 2.0 (0,0), 2.2 (0,0), 2.4 (0,0), 2.7 (0,0)

Solar cycle length forecast was same as last month solar cycle 24 lasting to september 2019.

Above forecast show 1 month which got higher than forecast and 11 months got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle number was same as last month.

This was quite small update, we got new forecast which is much smaller decline speed for next 6 month than last month. Not much to talk other than giving that new forecast. We are starting slowly approach solar cycle minimum, so decline speed should get slower as sunspot number can’t go below 0. We are still going toward solar cycle minimum altought slower speed than last month.

Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#24

#25

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. Now we have bigger update, so i may do little bit analysis where we are now as my few last messages didn’t have much information other than giving numbers as situation didn’t chance much from earlier months. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for may 2018 is 7,5. We didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered on most months for this solar cycle. Solar activity was higher november 2018 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 21 days. I need to mention here last month had 20 days without sunspot number if counting it by numbered sunspots, but if counted by area which have higher than 0 area has 21 days without sunspot last month, i use 21 days without sunspot last month for consistent reason so it is counted same way as earlier months. This was just mentioning it for you so you know. It maybe not big thing, but it is good to know there is that thing last month data. Sun has been 198 days without sunspot this year, counting first 11 month this year. This is 59% days without sunspot for first 11 months. Decline speed decreased from last month 2,0 to this month 0,4. Forecast was 7,6 so we got 0,1 smaller than forecasted number. Next month we have 0,2 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 7,3 (-0,3), 7,0 (-0,4), 6,5 (-0,6), 6,2 (-0,8), 6,0 (-0,8), 5,3.Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 1,1 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2019. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast. I might haven’t mentioned it earlier but if you didn’t see it those months which have () change number after it are forecasted months, earlier numbers are observed numbers. As we haven’t got longer forecast, number of forecasted months has declined.

2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.9 7.5 7.3e (-0,3), 7.0e (-0,4), 6.5e (-0,6), 6.2e (-0,8), 6.0e (-0,8), 5.3e (-0,9), 4.3e (-0,9),
2019 3.8e (-0,9), 3.5e (-1,0), 3.2e (-1,0), 3.1e (-0,9), 3.0e (-0,2), 2.0 (-0,9), 2.2 (-0,5), 2.4 (+0,1), 2.7 (+0,7), 3.1 (+0,9), 3.6 (+1,2), 4.1 (+1,4)

We got new solar cycle length forecast. New forecast have now solar cycle 24 lasting to june 2019 when last month forecast was this solar cycle lasting to september 2019. New forecast have solar cycle length of 10,5 years or 126 months when last month it was 10,8 years or 129 months. Solar cycle rise from solar cycle minimum to solar maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 months as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now 5,2 years or 62 months, when last month it was 5,4 years or 65 months from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum. I don’t have more time now, i may try to continue tomorrow this update analysis.


#26

Alan, where do you find “straight journalism”? Not at NY Times or Washington Post. Not on MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC or CNN.

Russia Today? BBC? Nope, not even there…it’s slanted too.

Certainly not Yahoo or MSN on the internet…90 percent of daily “news” has a anti-conservative bias on those sources. And, no, not NPR nor “public television”.

I’m not too into Fox News either, haven’t watched it in a month I don’t think…

“Mainstream” media reporting the news is like “mainstream” religion…


#27

Hi

I am back now let’s continue my message. Looks like i made calculation error in my last message, i think i need to correct it. I wrote " Last month we had 1,1 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,8 decline forecast for next 6 month from new number". That should be last month we had 1,1 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,2 decline forecast for next 6 month form new number. Sorry for incorrect number last month, now it should be right number for decline speed for next 6 month. I calculated incorrectly next 6 month decline speed in my last message.

Above forecast show 13 months which got lower than forecast and no months got higher forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle numbers was mostly increased.

I may mention that i have read that we have seen some sunspots for next solar cycle. We didn’t begin next solar cycle yet, but it is sign we are transition time to next solar cycle as we are near end of this solar cycle 24.

We got bigger update now than last month. Let’s do some analysis where we are now. We got new forecast which we don’t have 2 same numbers in forecast like we had last month, that is good thing to correct it so we continue now decline toward solar cycle minimum. Looks like solar activity has been lower than forecasted and solar cycle minimum is now forecasted to be june 2019 when it was september 2019 last month forecast. Also decline speed for next 6 months increased from last month. All months during solar cycle 24 in forecast got lower forecast and next solar cycle got 5 months which have higher forecast and 1 month which got lower than last month forecast. This forecast show solar cycle 24 length of 10,5 years or 126 months, which is shorter than average solar cycle length of 11 years. Looks like forecast think now we are declining toward solar cycle minimum faster than last month forecast. Next solar cycle which we have first 6 months in forecast show 2,1 increase, when solar cycle 24 when it began december 2008 for first 6 month increased 1,9, next solar cycle i think could be weaker than current solar cycle so increase speed could be slower than current solar cycle but forecast can change that in future forecast. Solar cycle decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is on average longer than solar cycle increase time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum, so this month forecast having shorter decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is somewhat concern. This leaves me thinking are we declining now too fast toward solar cycle minimum as now forecast have now little bit shorter than average solar cycle length, do we have some kind of steady decline toward solar cycle minimum so solar cycle could be increased. Forecast next solar cycle increase looks little bit concern as i think next solar cycle could be weaker than this solar cycle. I see also after last forecast month which have e on it, it has 1,0 decline for next month which is quite big decline at this time of solar cycle, i think that might need to change in future forecast. I think if solar activity increase or stay relatively same level forecast may increased but that depends future solar activity. We got new forecast which is shorter than last month forecast, forecasted have next solar cycle increased speed, current solar cycle decline speed increased. Forecast are not always correct, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.