Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast which is now 1 year longer than last month and includes now 2020 year, it also have change from last month solar cycle length forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for july 2018 is 7,1. We did reach forecast and forecast was raised on some months for this solar cycle. Solar activity was higher january 2019 than last month, sun was without sunspot for 16 days. This is 51% of days of year. Decline speed was same as last month 0,2. Next month we have 0,3 decline forecast.
Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 6,8 (+0,1), 6,4 (0,0), 6,2 (0,0), 5,5 (-0,1), 4,5 (-0,1), 4,1. Last month is new in he list. Last month we had 2,7 decline forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 3,0 decline forecast for next 6 month for new number.
Following are forecasted SSN to december 2020. We got now longer forecast which now have full 2020 year in forecast, so now we see more in future of next solar cycle forecast. As this first month to have 2020 year in forecast i can’t show change from last month forecast for 2020 year so those don’t have () after forecast. I still include them here, so we can look at them. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.
2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.8e (+0,1), 6.4e (0,0), 6.2e (0,0), 5.5e (-0,1), 4.5e (-0,1),
2019 4.1e (0,0), 3.9e (+0,1), 3.8e (+0,3), 3.9e (+0,6), 4.0e (+0,9), 4.2e (+1,2), 4.4e (+2,1), 4.1 (+2,1), 4.9 (+2,7), 5.6 (+3,2), 6.4 (+3,7), 7.4 (+4,3)
2020 8.7 10.2 11.8 13.5 15.3 17.5 19.8 22.1 24.5 27.1 30.2 33.9
We got new solar cycle length forecast. New forecast have now solar cycle 24 lasting to march 2019 when last month forecast this solar cycle lasting to august 2019. New forecast have solar cycle length 10,2 years or 122 months when last month it was 10,7 or 128 months. Solar cycle rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 months as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Solar cycle decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum is now 4,8 years or 58 months, when last month it was 5,3 years or 64 months. I may mention that in this new forecast show lowest forecasted number march 2019 but solar cycle 24 began december 2008 adding forecasted solar cycle length to that give february 2019 so there is one month difference, don’t know where that difference came from.
Above forecast show 3 months which got higher than forecast and 2 month got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast. Next solar cycle numbers all got lowered which had () showing change from last month forecast.
We got quite big update now, we got new forecast which show solar cycle 24 lasting to march 2019 when last month forecast solar cycle 24 lasting to august 2019. Forecast solar cycle length is shorter than average of 11 years. We are less than 1 year from solar cycle minimum, lowest forecasted number. New forecast has increased lowest number quite big way from last month forecast when it was 2,0, now it is 3,8 which is 90% higher than last month. This is quite big chance from last month, solar cycle 24 begin december 2008 with number 2,2 now forecast is 3,8 which is higher number to begin next solar cycle, last month forecast was begin with lower number so this new new forecast changed direction in that way. Also next solar cycle forecast got increased quite a lot, change from last month is bigger than was change last in last month forecast. Maybe forecast think we are near solar cycle minimum, this shorter than average solar cycle length is somewhat concern in my opinion as weak solar cycle should last longer than average solar cycle length.
We got longer forecast which now have year 2020 in it, so we may look at closer it. We have now all forecasted numbers of solar cycle 24 with e character, after solar cycle minimum forecast we have four months with e character which show 0,5 increase after solar cycle minimum. When this solar cycle began it increased 1,1 for first four months so next solar cycle increase is slower in forecast but it is only four first months so i think not too much conclusion should be do with so short time. This looks somewhat right that way next solar cycle might be weaker than current solar cycle. If we look first 12 months of next solar cycle forecast, forecast show increase 8, when solar cycle 24 began it increased 10,5 first 12 months. This also looks somewhat right as next solar cycle maybe weaker than current solar cycle. If we look forecast to december 2020 which is 21 months from solar cycle minimum it shows increase of 30,1 when solar cycle 24 began it increased for first 21 months 27,3. This looks bigger increase for next solar cycle than current solar cycle maybe forecast think raise time to solar cycle maximum increases in future. I think it is too early for think next solar cycle in too much detail, those are just some thinking which came to mind.
In forecast after e i see one decline month after solar cycle minimum, just to mention it. This month forecast main thing is that is the higher minimum in forecast going to happen actually? I thought as next solar cycle might be weaker than current one, solar minimum could be lower. Altought i can’t say that this forecast is not right, this forecast is just quite much different from last month forecast. What if we decrease to those number in forecast time but decline further in future? I don’t know how accurate this forecast is. I think it is still good to get longer forecast, so we see more in future what might be more future solar activity, at least something about to think. We are still declining toward solar cycle minimum. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.