Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for april 2019 is 4.3. We didn’t reach forecast which was 4,5 and forecast was lowered one month for this solar cycle and next solar cycle was lowered some month, also some month was raised from last month. Solar activity was lower October 2019 than last month and forecast was lowered, also lowered some months. Sun was without sunspot for 29 days in october. Sun has been 228 days without sunspot for 2019. This is 75 % days of year. This year spotless days are now higher than last year spotless days. Decline speed decreased from last month 0,4 to this month 0,3. Next month we have 0,1 decline forecast.
Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 4,2 (-0,4), 4,5 (-0,4), 4,7 (-0,4), 5,2 (-0,4), 5,8 (-0,3), 6,2. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 1,5 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,9 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.
Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.
2019 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2e (-0,4), 4.5e (-0,4), 4.7e (-0,4), 5.2e (-0,4), 5.8e (-0,3), 6.2e (-0,3), 6.8e (-0,3), 7.9e (-0,3),
2020 9.7e (-0,2), 11.7e (-0,2), 14.1e (-0,1), 16.7e (+1,6), 17.9 (+0,2), 20.5 (+0,2), 23.5 (+0,3), 27.3 (+0,6), 31.1 (+0,8), 34.8 (+0,8), 38.7 (+1,0), 43.1 (+1,1),
2021 48.1 (+1,1), 53.9 (+1,1), 59.9 (+1,9), 64.0 (+2,9), 66.6 (+2,7), 70.6 (+2,4), 75.1 (+2,1), 79.1 (+2,0), 82.8 (+2,0), 86.1 (+2,6), 87.8 (+2,7), 89.4 (+1,9)
Solar cycle 24 is forecast to last may 2019. Above forecast show 1 month which got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast.
This month we got new forecast which some months was lowered and some was higher. Now in new forecast 10 months was lowered for next solar cycle and 22 months was higher for next solar cycle from last month forecast. I think i need to mention that above forecast show solar cycle minimum was moved 1 month forward in forecast but text part of forecast was same as last month, that is misleading i think i go by numbers from above. Last month we had 1,5 increase forecast from that time SSN for next 6 month, which now got increased to 1,9 in new forecast for next 6 month which i think is not good thing to do as forecast might now think we are going faster toward next solar cycle maximum. If look those numbers above, last month we had 9,6 increase for next 12 months, now we have 12,4 increase for next 12 months, forecast is thinking we are going faster than last month toward solar cycle maximum. I think that is somewhat concerning as next solar cycle might be weaker than current solar cycle, it is not good to see in that regard that forecast was raised that way you can see above forecast. Those was that months which have that e character on them. Also we might pay attention that this forecast is now more challenging that last month forecast because we got one more month in observations but forecast was raised so it is raising in forecast faster speed than last month so increase is faster in same time compared to last month forecast. For those months which got higher forecast just for clarification. I think this is not good forecast that way it is more challenging as forecast was increased for many months. I think this forecast is still too early for solar cycle minimum as this solar cycle is not yet reached average length of solar cycle, but it is new forecast altought it is more challenging forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.