Solar cycle 24 update,


#41

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for april 2019 is 4.3. We didn’t reach forecast which was 4,5 and forecast was lowered one month for this solar cycle and next solar cycle was lowered some month, also some month was raised from last month. Solar activity was lower October 2019 than last month and forecast was lowered, also lowered some months. Sun was without sunspot for 29 days in october. Sun has been 228 days without sunspot for 2019. This is 75 % days of year. This year spotless days are now higher than last year spotless days. Decline speed decreased from last month 0,4 to this month 0,3. Next month we have 0,1 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 4,2 (-0,4), 4,5 (-0,4), 4,7 (-0,4), 5,2 (-0,4), 5,8 (-0,3), 6,2. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 1,5 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,9 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2019 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2e (-0,4), 4.5e (-0,4), 4.7e (-0,4), 5.2e (-0,4), 5.8e (-0,3), 6.2e (-0,3), 6.8e (-0,3), 7.9e (-0,3),
2020 9.7e (-0,2), 11.7e (-0,2), 14.1e (-0,1), 16.7e (+1,6), 17.9 (+0,2), 20.5 (+0,2), 23.5 (+0,3), 27.3 (+0,6), 31.1 (+0,8), 34.8 (+0,8), 38.7 (+1,0), 43.1 (+1,1),
2021 48.1 (+1,1), 53.9 (+1,1), 59.9 (+1,9), 64.0 (+2,9), 66.6 (+2,7), 70.6 (+2,4), 75.1 (+2,1), 79.1 (+2,0), 82.8 (+2,0), 86.1 (+2,6), 87.8 (+2,7), 89.4 (+1,9)

Solar cycle 24 is forecast to last may 2019. Above forecast show 1 month which got lower forecast during solar cycle 24 than last month forecast.

This month we got new forecast which some months was lowered and some was higher. Now in new forecast 10 months was lowered for next solar cycle and 22 months was higher for next solar cycle from last month forecast. I think i need to mention that above forecast show solar cycle minimum was moved 1 month forward in forecast but text part of forecast was same as last month, that is misleading i think i go by numbers from above. Last month we had 1,5 increase forecast from that time SSN for next 6 month, which now got increased to 1,9 in new forecast for next 6 month which i think is not good thing to do as forecast might now think we are going faster toward next solar cycle maximum. If look those numbers above, last month we had 9,6 increase for next 12 months, now we have 12,4 increase for next 12 months, forecast is thinking we are going faster than last month toward solar cycle maximum. I think that is somewhat concerning as next solar cycle might be weaker than current solar cycle, it is not good to see in that regard that forecast was raised that way you can see above forecast. Those was that months which have that e character on them. Also we might pay attention that this forecast is now more challenging that last month forecast because we got one more month in observations but forecast was raised so it is raising in forecast faster speed than last month so increase is faster in same time compared to last month forecast. For those months which got higher forecast just for clarification. I think this is not good forecast that way it is more challenging as forecast was increased for many months. I think this forecast is still too early for solar cycle minimum as this solar cycle is not yet reached average length of solar cycle, but it is new forecast altought it is more challenging forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#42

Hi

Looks like i calculated incorrectly how many months was changed in forecast from last month forecast. I wrote " Now in new forecast 10 months was lowered for next solar cycle and 22 months was higher for next solar cycle from last month forecast". That should have been now in new forecast 10 months was lowered for next solar cycle and 21 months was higher for next solar cycle from last last month forecast. I think that is not big thing, but i think it is good thing to correct it as i saw it.


#43

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for may 2019 is 3,9. We didn’t reach forecast which was 4,2 and forecast was lowered all months for next solar cycle. Solar activity was higher november 2019 than last month forecast and forecast was lowered. Sun was without sunspot 28 days in november. Sun has been 256 days without sunspot for 2019. This is 76% days of year. Maybe i should mention that last month sunspot was quite small in size, some might have little bit less days without sunspot, i see two days difference in spotless days but i look spotless days of those which sunspot number is zero in text file and it is as i wrote it now. I think i can’t change it as it would mess spotless days as it would confuse difference sources of information. Just let you to know it, difference might be how big or how long or clearly we see sunspots and who reports those sunspots i think. Decline speed increased from last month 0,3 to this month 0,4. Next month we have 0,0 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 3,9 (-0,6), 4,1 (-0,6), 4,5 (-0,7), 4,9 (-0,9), 5,2 (-1,0), 5,6. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 1,9 increase forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 1,7 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2019 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.9e (-0,6), 4.1e (-0,6), 4.5e (-0,7), 4.9e (-0,9), 5.2e (-1,0), 5.6e (-1,2), 6.6e (-1,3),
2020 8.1e (-1,6), 9.9e (-1,8), 12.0e (-2,1), 14.5e (-2,2), 17.3e (-0,6), 18.5 (-2,0), 21.0 (-2,5), 24.1 (-3,2), 28.1 (-3,0), 32.0 (-2,8), 35.7 (-3,0), 39.6 (-3,5),
2021 44.0 (-4,1), 49.0 (-4,9), 54.8 (-5,1), 60.6 (-3,4), 64.6 (-2,0), 67.3 (-3,3), 71.4 (-3,7), 75.7 (-3,4), 79.5 (-3,3), 83.3 (-2,8), 86.5 (-1,3), 88.2 (-1,2)

Solar cycle 24 is forecast to last may 2019 or june 2019, it depends how you look above forecast as next month have same forecast number as current number. Text forecast changed solar cycle length from last 10,3 years or 124 months to this month 10,4 years or 125 months. Solar cycle rise time from last solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 month as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar minimum changed from last month 5,0 years or 60 months to this month 5,1 years or 61 months. I think this last number is right if you take it as where we are now for solar cycle minimum.

This month we got new forecast which all next solar solar cycle months was lowered which is good thing to do in my opinion as we didn’t reach forecast. Next month we have 0,0 decline forecast for next month which mean we don’t have any decline forecast for next month which is not good as i think we are not yet in solar cycle minimum, i think we might be still going lower for SSN because we don’t have many sunspots in sun now as we have quite high number of days in month without sunspot. Next 6 month decline speed decreased from last month 1,9 from that time number to this month 1,7 which is good thing to do as forecast now think we are going slower speed toward next solar cycle maximum. Last month forecast had 13,0 forecasted increase for next 12 months from that time number, now new forecast have 13,4 forecasted increase for next 12 months from new number, which is not so good to increase rise speed toward solar cycle maximum. I think this forecast is still too optimistic about that we have reached solar cycle minimum as we haven’t reached previous solar cycle minimum level yet as next solar cycle might be weaker that current solar cycle. It is good still that forecast was lowered for next solar cycle. It might be good to remember that forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#44

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new IPS forecast and new SSN for next month. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for june 2019 is 3,7. We are now 10 years and 6 months in solar cycle 24. We didn’t reach forecast which was 3,9 and forecast was lowered one month for this solar cycle and next solar cycle was lowered some month, also some month was raised from last month. Solar activity was higher december 2019 than last month and forecast was lowered some month. Sun was without sunspot 28 days in december. Sun has been 284 days without sunspot for 2019. This is 77% days of year. Decline speed decreased from last month 0,4 to this month 0,2. Next month we have 0,1 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 3,6 (-0,5), 3,9 (-0,6), 4,3 (-0,6), 4,5 (-0,7), 4,8 (-0,8), 5,7. Last month is new in the list. I think i have not mentioned that but that list one month more in future as one month wash observed more as it is forecast. Last month we had 1,7 increase forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,0 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast. I might tell that as we got one more month observed forecasted number is one month shorter than last month.

2019 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.6e (-0,5), 3.9e (-0,6), 4.3e (-0,6), 4.5e (-0,7), 4.8e (-0,8), 5.7e (-0,9)
2020 7.1e (-1,0), 8.8e (-1,1), 10.8e (-1,2), 13.1e (-1,4), 15.8e (-1,5), 18.8e (+0,3), 19.6 (-1,4), 22.5 (-1,6), 26.5 (-1,6), 30.6 (-1,4), 34.8 (-1,1), 39.3 (-0,3),
2021 45.2 (+1,2), 51.8 (+2,8), 57.9 (+3,1) 62.3 (+1,7), 65.7 (+1,1), 70.1 (+2,8), 74.8 (+3,4), 79.0 (+3,3), 82.3 (+2,8) 84.4 (+1,1), 85.9 (-0,6), 87.9 (-0,3)

Solar cycle 24 is forecast to last june 2019 or july 2019, it depends how you look above forecast as next month we have lower forecast number as current number. Text forecast changed solar cycle length from last month 10,4 years or 125 months to this month 10,5 years or 126 months. Solar cycle rise time from last solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 month as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum changed from last month 5,1 years or 61 months to this month 5,2 years or 62 months.

This month we got new forecast which forecast one month decline for solar cycle 24 and for next solar cycle forecast decreased 18 months and increased 11 months from last month forecast. It was good thing in my opinion that next month we have small decline forecast. Forecast increased increase speed for next 6 month from last month which might not be so good but forecast might be thinking of next solar cycle might begin soon if solar activity rise that way it increase numbers. For next 12 months increase speed increased also from last month forecast, which might be so good as i think next solar cycle might be weaker than current solar cycle but let’s remember that i think it wise not to make big changes in overall image based what happened just one month as solar activity might go up or down from month to month. It might be good to remember that forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#45

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new IPS forecast and new SSN for next month. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for july 2019 is 3,5. We didn’t reach forecast which was 3,6 and forecast was lowered all month for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Solar activity was higher january 2020 than last month and forecast was lowered from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot 16 days in january. Sun has been 16 days without sunspot for 2020. This is 51% days of year. Decline speed was 0,2 which was same 0,2 as last month. Next month we have 0,3 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 3,8 (-0,1), 4,1 (-0,2), 4,1 (-0,4), 4,3 (-0,5), 5,0 (-0,7), 6,3. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 2,0 increase forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,8 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. first 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2019 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.8e (-0,1), 4.1e (-0,2), 4.1e (-0,4), 4.3e (-0,5), 5.0e (-0,7),
2020 6.3e (-0,8), 7.8e (-1,0), 9.5e (-1,3), 11.5e (-1,6), 13.9e (-1,9), 16.6e (-2,2), 19.4e (-0,2), 20.1 (-2,4), 23.0 (-3,5), 27.0 (-3,6), 31.1 (-3,7), 35.3 (-4,0),
2021 40.1 (-5,9), 46.0 (-5,8), 52.6 (-5,3), 58.5 (-3,8), 62.6 (-3,1), 66.0 (-4,1), 70.4 (-4,4), 75.1 (-3,9), 79.3 (-3,0), 82.6 (-1,8), 84.7 (-1,2), 86.1 (-1,8)

Solar cycle 24 is forecast to last july 2019. Text forecast changed solar cycle length from last month 10,5 years or 126 months to this month 10,6 years or 127 months. Solar cycle rise time from last solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same same as last month 5,3 years or 64 month as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum changed from last month 5,2 years or 62 months to this month 5,2 years or 63 months.

This month we got new forecast which have for next solar cycle all months decreased from last month forecast. New forecast have now increase forecast for next month, when last month it showed decrease which means new forecast think we have have reached solar cycle minimum and now continue toward next solar cycle maximum. I have doubts about that we have reached solar cycle minimum as this solar cycle is not yet average in length, also i think it might be wise not to make too big changes in big image based short time things. Also forecast was lowered from last month forecast, but forecast now show faster increase for next 6 month than last as can be seen above forecast. Question now is have we reached solar cycle minimum as this forecast now show or do we still go lower? I think we might go lower, but that remains to be seen what solar activity is in future. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#46

Hi

I have wrote IPS forecast of sun situation, but many months those forecast have been too optimistic that way we haven’t reached forecast and forecast have been lowered. I found another forecast from internet which i tell now, let’s see if that forecast perform better way than IPS forecast. This forecast is from NASA. NASA has old forecast in archive, so i could compare it to last month forecast. NASA use same version 2.0 smoothed sunspot number as above forecast so situation about sun should be same. But keep in mind don’t mix those forecast, only compare same forecast from earlier same forecast as those are different forecast. Before we start this forecast, i think i need to mention this caution from this forecast : “The estimation technique is used to predict the remaining of the current cycle, but it is not able to predict the next solar cycle at this time”. I write next 6 months forecasted SSN () showing change from last month, this is february 2020 forecast. Just for reminder we are now july 2019 SSN, forecast have old forecast internet so i could compare it to last month forecast. Let’s start this NASA forecast.

     95.0%       50%      5.0%     

2019.5837 AUG 5.6 (-2,7), 3.3 (-0,2), 1.7 (+1,4)
2019.6670 SEP 7.2 (-2,6), 3.1 (-0,3), 0.6 (+0,6)
2019.7503 OCT 6.9 (-2,5), 2.8 (-0,3), 0.0 (0,0)
2019.8337 NOV 6.2 (-1,5), 2.6 (-0,3), 0.0 (0,0)
2019.9170 DEC 7.2 (-1,4), 3.2 (-0,2), 0.0 (0,0)
2020.0003 JAN 9.2 4.4 0.7

Above table has 3 forecasted numbers, 95 % and 5 % are with in 2 sigma which seems to be same as standard deviation, 50 % is average. 95 % Looks to be too high forecast and 5 % too low, looks like that average 50% could be number which we should be looking as it about middle of those two other numbers.

Forecast show solar cycle 24 minimum november 2019, 4 months from now, it is different from IPS forecast as IPS forecast we have reached solar cycle minimum. Also forecast show lower solar cycle minimum than IPS forecast. As i have told earlier IPS has been quite optimistic of their forecast. This forecast show 0,2 decline forecast for next month. It is also good to see difference from those high and low forecast for next month was smaller than last month as high forecast got lower and low forecast got higher from last month forecast.

This forecast can’t forecast next solar cycle maximum, but it forecast it so we may look at it. This forecast show solar cycle maximum september 2023 for 95%, december 2023 for 50% and october 2024 for 5%. This shows that image strong solar cycle rise faster toward solar cycle maximum and weaker solar cycle rise slower toward solar cycle minimum. I think as this forecast can’t forecast next solar cycle at this moment, it is wise not to pay too much attention at this time of when next solar cycle maximum might happen i think we might now concentrate when we are solar cycle minimum, altough we might look next solar cycle too so we can some image what kind of next solar cycle might be when it begins.

There is noticeable discrepancy from IPS and NASA forecast about when solar cycle minimum occur and what number we got of solar cycle minimum. IPS forecast show we have reached solar cycle minimum and begin going toward solar cycle, but NASA forecast show we haven’t yet reached solar cycle minimum an we are going still toward solar cycle minimum. This might one reason why i am concerned about that IPS forecast, we have reached solar cycle minimum, IPS has many times had too optimistic forecast. This show and maybe give your some image why i think we might still going toward solar cycle minimum and i have been somewhat doubtful above IPS forecast. IPS has over estimated solar activity in their forecast. This NASA forecast is more neutral that way it looks like, based on this forecast, but let’s see how NASA forecast perform in future. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#47

Hi @Dennis1983. Thanks for the updates. A question I have been kicking around for some time is: are these SS forecasts and counts total SS (eg using satelites to count those on the side of the sun which faces away from earth), or is it just earth facing spots that are being talked about?

I realize that the sun’s rotation causes many far side spots to eventually be visible from earth, but it seems possible that some would be missed. Do you know the methodology they are using?


#48

Excellent question, Steve333


#49

Steve333 hi

I think sunspots count earth facing side of the sun. We see earth facing sunspots as you asked about it. Yes sun rotation can turn sunspot to earth facing side if it stay live long enough from far side of sun. What do you mean some would be missed? Do you mean some sunspots might disappear that time it transit in far side of sun? Yes it can happen sunspot do disappear during it far side transit time.

Do you mean by methodology how we calculate sunspots? I think sun is observed in observatory, where they can have telescope which is filtered so it is safe to look sun. I think it depends what kind of telescope they have, what is the diameter of telescope, i think bigger diameter then you can see smaller sunspots in sun surface, if there is sunspots. Now we have also in space those who looks sun and computer can process image now days. If you asked how we calculate sunspot number, i am not scientist but i found and can give this link count about sunspot :

https://www.1kyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/how-astronomers-count-sunspots15022016513/

In link remove 1 and replace it with s to get right address.

There is also some differences what sunspot can be seen, weather related and which time is looked to sun. Maybe this gave you some information.


#50

Thanks Dennis, I will take a look at the link.

The reason I asked, is the sun spot counts are used for various “things”. For stuff like predicting weather, cloud formation here on earth, you probably want just the earth facing ones counted. But for things such as predicting the state of the sun, and perhaps even the sun cycle itself, it would seem that it is a bit to “self-centered” to just use the earth facing ones. For all we know, there may be a whole lot of SS activity on the far side of the sun. Stuff like this might be more accurate if we had the whole SS picture.

Not volunteering to redo the calculations, and of course the missing data would not be available prior to satellites. But it might be interesting to include that data.


#51

Steve333 hi

Yes i think sun is used for weather forecast, some use it to that i think. I think we count earth facing side of sunspots. You wrote “For all we know, there may be whole lot of ss activity on the far side of sun” i think there might be sunspots in far side of the sun during solar cycle maximum but not so many during solar cycle minimum i think. It is good to remember that sun rotates and if sunspots are visible long enough far side of the sun, they rotate to earth facing side of the sun.


#52

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. Before we go to solar activity, i have been quite doubtful for IPS solar cycle forecast as they have looked too optimistic as we haven’t reached for many months of their forecast. I think we are now in critical point in IPS forecast as forecast looks still quite challenging, let me to show some light for this situation why i am doubtful of their forecast. I haven’t earlier wrote about this i think so let’s write it clear way so people might understand it right way. SSN which is smoothed sunspot number have 6 month delay and SSN is calculated using 12 month data, actually it is 13 month data but first and last month data have half weighting. 12 Months are one year. To get idea of this situation here is this year 2020 and last year not smoothed sunspot number :

2019 7.7 0.8 9.4 9.1 9.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.5 1.6
2020 6.4 0.4

Above rows have 12 number from left to right, those are 12 months that way under number are same month from next year. We have this year february little bit lower than last year february activity which is not good as can be seen above number activity was quite low. Last month was also lower than last year. If we think this statistically to get next solar cycle to begin, we would like to get more than half months higher than last year that might mean we might need at least 6 months higher activity than last year months, that way that those first two months months this year didn’t went good way. I think that critical thing which i above wrote is, that next month we need solar activity about 9 something for next month which is quite challenging considering how low our solar activity has been this year. Also we have three of those 9 something months in row which is not also not good as solar activity has been quite low this year.

Now we can continue solar cycle forecast. We got new IPS forecast and new SSN for next months. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for august 2019 is 3,5. We didn’t reach forecast which was 3,8 and forecast was lowered all month for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Solar activity was lower february 2020 than last month and forecast was lowered from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 28 days in february. Sun has been 44 days without sunspot for 2020. This is 73% days of year. This month didn’t change from last month, decline speed was 0,2 last month. Next month we have 0,1 decrease forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 3,4 (-0,7), 3,4 (-0,7), 3,4 (-0,9), 3,9 (-1,1), 5,0 (-1,3), 6,4. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 2,8 increase forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 2,9 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2019 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4e (-0,7), 3.4e (-0,7), 3.4e (-0,9), 3.9e (-1,1),
2020 5.0e (-1,3), 6.4e (-1,4), 7.9e (-1,6), 9.7e (-1,8), 11.8e (-2,1), 14.2e (-2,4), 16.7e (-2,7), 19.6e (-0,5), 20.6 (-2,4), 23.7 (-3,3), 27.7 (-3,4), 31.7 (-3,6),
2021 35.8 (-4,3), 40.6 (-5,4), 46.6 (-6,0), 53.2 (-5,3), 59.0 (-3,6), 63.1 (-2,9), 66.5 (-3,9), 70.8 (-4,3), 75.3 (-4,0), 79.4 (-3,2), 82.8 (-1,9), 84.9 (-1,2)

Solar cycle 24 is forecast to last november 2019. Text forecast changed solar cycle length from last month 10,6 years or 127 months to this month 10,7 years or 128 months. Solar cycle rise time time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 month as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum changed from last month 5,2 years or 63 months to this month 5,3 years or 64 month.

This month we got new forecast which have for next solar cycle all months decreased from last month forecast. We got now bigger change than last month in solar situation. Forecast was for this month 0,3 increase, it didn’t happen as we got same number this month moving solar cycle minimum one month forward. Solar activity didn’t reach forecast and forecast was lowered in other words as this forecast has been too optimistic for many months. If you remember on average solar cycle is 4 year rise from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum and 7 years decline from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum, that is decline time is longer than increase time. New text forecast have now solar cycle decline time same length as solar cycle rise time when last month solar cycle decline time was shorter than solar cycle rise time that is move to right direction in my opinion. If we look at forecasted numbers we have next three months having same forecast number, so forecast might think solar cycle minimum now for november 2019 if you take it by last number. That is for right direction, althought i think forecast might be still too optimistic about solar activity. Forecast increased next 6 month increase speed little bit from last forecast which is not so good, it also increased little bit increase speed for next 12 month from last month forecast which is not so good. Forecast might be thinking we catch up increase speed after we reach solar cycle minimum, i have doubts about that but that future show if it is going this way as forecast show now. Forecast was lowered all months for next solar cycle which is good thing to do in my opinion, as solar activity was quite low last month. Above forecast is questionable as i wrote about thing about next month solar activity, it looks like we need higher solar activity for next month if we want to reach forecast if i am right, i don’t guarantee things but situation don’t look too good in this regard for solar activity. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#53

Some think they can change the climate. The sun, and to lesser extent things like volcanoes, have much more influence on temps on earth than whatever man does (short of maybe nuclear war).

Just an observation. Thanks for your work.


#54

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle 24 forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

95.0% 50% 5.0%

2019.6670 SEP 4.9 (-2,3) 3.1 (0,0) 1.4 (+0,8)
2019.7503 OCT 4.7 (-2,2) 2.8 (0,0) 0.0 (0,0)
2019.8337 NOV 5.2 (-1,0) 2.6 (0,0) 0.0 (0,0)
2019.9170 DEC 6.3 (-0,9) 3.2 (0,0) 0.0 (0,0)
2020.0003 JAN 8.4 (-0,8) 4.4 (0,0) 0.7 (0,0)
2020.0837 FEB 11.4 6.1 1.5

This month middle forecast above is same as last month, it didn’t change from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum times didn’t change from last month so don’t need to repeat that again now. First forecast got lowered from last month forecast and last forecast first number got increased from last month forecast. Difference between first and last forecast got smaller, that is good thing to do i think. Now IPS and NASA have same solar cycle minimum month, if we go by middle number in this forecast. Let’s see which of those are better forecasting solar cycle minimum number, which time might tell when it is time for that. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#55

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new IPS forecast and new SSN for next month. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for september 2019 is 3,1. We didn’t reach forecast which was 3,4 and forecast was lowered all month for this solar cycle and some months for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Solar activity was higher march 2020 than last month and forecast was lowered some months for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 28 days in march. Sun has been 72 days without sunspot for 2020. This is 79% days of year. Decline speed increased from last month 0,2 to this month 0,4. Next month we have 0,3 decrease forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 2,8 (-0,6), 2,8 (-0,6), 3,3 (-0,6), 4,4 (-0,6), 5,6 (-0,8), 7,1. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 2,9 increase forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 4,0 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. First 12 are forecasted months are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2019 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.8e (-0,6), 2.8e (-0,6), 3.3e (-0,6),
2020 4.4e (-0,6), 5.6e (-0,8), 7.1e (-0,8), 8.9e (-0,8), 11.1e (-0,7), 13.5e (-0,7), 16.1e (-0,6), 19.0e (-0,6), 22.5e (+1,9), 24.3 (+0,6), 28.4 (+0,7), 32.4 (+0,7),
2021 36.2 (+0,4), 40.5 (-0,1), 45.4 (-1,2), 50.9 (-2,3), 56.0 (-3,0), 60.4 (-2,7), 64.8 (-1,7), 69.7 (-1,1), 74.5 (-0,8), 78.5 (-0,9), 82.2 (-0,6), 85.4 (+0,5)

Solar cycle 24 is forecast last November 2019. Text forecast changed solar cycle length from last month 10,7 years or 128 months to this month 10,8 years or 129 months. Solar cycle rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 months as we have already reaches solar cycle maximum. Decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum changed from 5,3 years or 64 month to this month 5,4 years or 65 months.

This month we got new forecast which decreased two months for solar cycle 24 and decreased 19 months and increased 6 months for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Forecast now have two months same for solar cycle minimum, last month we had three months same for solar cycle minimum. Now we have decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar minimum longer than increase time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum which i think is right thing to do, last month those was same length. New forecast increased both 6 months and 12 months increase speed from last month forecast which i am not so sure about if that happens that way you can see above forecast. Forecast looks like think we get faster speed toward solar cycle maximum after we reach solar cycle minimum if we compare it to last month forecast. I am not so sure if that happens, i think that if we reach solar cycle minimum as in this forecast we might rise toward solar cycle maximum at slower speed that in this forecast. I have said earlier i think next solar cycle may be smaller than this current solar cycle, in that way solar cycle length might be longer as weaker solar cycle tend to increase slower to solar cycle maximum than strong solar cycle which increase faster toward solar cycle maximum. I think i can’t say this forecast is not right about it but i am cautious that solar activity might not increase in that way this forecast show, also as i have said earlier IPS has many times had too optimistic forecast and solar activity have been lower than their forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#56

Hi

Let’s looks now NASA solar cycle 24 forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

         95.0%       50%      5.0%   

2019.7503 OCT 3.6 (-1,1) 2.7 (-0,1) 1.5 (+1,5)
2019.8337 NOV 4.2 (-1,0) 2.5 (-0,1) 0.9 (+0,9)
2019.9170 DEC 5.3 (-1,0) 3.1 (-0,1) 0.8 (+0,8)
2020.0003 JAN 7.5 (-0,9) 4.4 (0,0) 1.4 (+0,7)
2020.0837 FEB 10.6 (-0,8) 6.1 (0,0) 2.1 (+0,6)
2020.1670 MAR 13.5 7.7 2.6

New NASA forecast lowered first forecast, lowered middle forecast solar cycle minimum little bit and increased last forecast from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle times didn’t change from last month forecast so don’t repeat that again now. Difference between first and last forecast got smaller from last month forecast, that is good thing to do i think. Now this new forecast show october 2019 for solar cycle minimum for first number, november 2019 for second number and december 2019 for last number. Last month forecast last number had three months same number, now it shows one month with lowest number. If we look that middle forecast, it changed little bit from last month forecast as it lowered little bit solar cycle minimum from last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#57

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 24 situation now. We got new IPS forecast and new SSN for next month. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for October 2019 is 2,6. We didn’t reach forecast which was 2,8 and forecast was lowered all month for this solar cycle and all months for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Solar activity was higher april 2020 than last month and forecast was lowered all months for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 21 days in april. Sun has been 93 days without sunspot for 2020. This is 76% days of year. Decline speed increased from last month 0,4 to this month 0,5. Next month we have 0,1 decline forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month : 2,5 (-0,3), 2,9 (-0,4), 3,8 (-0,6), 5,0 (-0,6), 6,4 (-0,7), 8,0. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 4,0 increase forecast for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 5,4 increase forecast for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2021. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2019 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.5e (-0,3), 2.9e (-0,4),
2020 3.8e (-0,6), 5.0e (-0,6), 6.4e (-0,7), 8.0e (-0,9), 9.9e (-1,2), 12.1e (-1,4), 14.5e (-1,6), 17.1e (-1,9), 20.4e (-2,1), 23.8e (-0,5), 25.8 (-2,6), 29.8 (-2,6),
2021 33.7 (-2,5), 37.6 (-2,9), 42.2 (-3,2), 47.3 (-3,6), 52.5 (-3,5), 57.1 (-3,3), 61.5 (-3,3), 65.7 (-4,0), 70.4 (-4,1), 75.0 (-3,5), 79.1 (-3,1), 82.7 (-2,7)

Solar cycle 24 is forecast last November 2019. Text forecast changed solar cycle length from last month 10,8 years or 129 months to this month 10,8 years or 130 months. Solar cycle rise time from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum was same as last month 5,3 years or 64 months as we have already reached solar cycle maximum. Decline time from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum changed from 5,4 years or 65 months to this month 5,5 years or 66 months.

This month we got new forecast which decreased one month for solar cycle 24 and decreased 25 months for next solar cycle from last month forecast. Forecast now have one month for solar cycle minimum, last month we had two months for solar cycle minimum. New forecast increased both 6 months and 12 months increased speed from last month forecast, i am not sure if that happens that way this forecast is showing above. This new forecast lowered all months for next solar cycle from last month forecast, which is good thing to do i think as we didn’t reached IPS forecast. We are now one month away from solar cycle minimum in this new forecast. There seems not to much more to write about this new forecast other than giving new forecast and giving new solar cycle length. Forecast are no always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#58

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle 24 forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

            95.0%       50%      5.0%     

2019.8337 NOV 3.3 (-0,9) 2.4 (-0,1) 1.1 (+0,2)
2019.9170 DEC 4.5 (-0,8) 3.0 (-0,1) 1.0 (+0,2)
2020.0003 JAN 6.8 (-0,7) 4.3 (-0,1) 1.6 (+0,2)
2020.0837 FEB 9.9 (-0,7) 5.9 (-0,2) 2.2 (+0,1)
2020.1670 MAR 12.9 (-0,6) 7.6 (-0,1) 2.8 (+0,2)
2020.2503 APR 16.8 9.2 3.4

New NASA forecast lowered first forecast, lowered middle forecast solar cycle minimum little bit and increased last forecast from last month forecast. Forecast solar cycle times didn’t change from last month forecast so i don’t that again now. This new forecast show november 2019 for solar cycle minimum for first and second number and december 2019 for last number. If we look that middle forecast, it lowered little bit from last month forecast. This new NASA forecast have if we go by middle number we are one month from solar cycle minimum. Now NASA have 0,2 forecasted decline for next month for solar cycle minimum if we go by middle number which is number we could follow as it is not as high not either as low as those two other numbers and IPS have 0,1 forecasted decline for next month for solar cycle minimum. Both forecast seems to be thinking we have next month reached solar cycle minimum and begin then rise toward solar cycle maximum. Time can time if that happens that way as their forecast is showing now, i am somewhat cautious about those forecast. Time can tell if solar activity begin rise that way our smoothed sunspot number can go up. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.