Solar cycle 25 update

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. This is continuing from my solar cycle 24 update message Solar cycle 24 update, - General Fruit Growing - Growing Fruit as we have now begun solar cycle 25. I have waited 6 months after solar cycle 25 begun, to see that we have reached solar cycle minimum, that is lowest smoothed sunspot number. Solar cycle 24 begun december 2008 and ended december 2019, that is 11 years solar cycle length which is average length of solar cycle. I was thinking earlier that solar cycle 24 might be longer than average, it looks like solar cycle 25 have begun as smoothed sunspot number is now increasing, at least in this moment. We got new SSN and new forecast. In new forecast we got 2 years more forecast, 2022 and 2023 year were added to forecast. Before going forward, let’s first upload IPS solar cycle forecast image here :

I think this image should update forecast every month, unless image address change sometime. I just copy here my earlier message explanation of this image as it was quite good way wrote it. “In this a graph of the current solar cycle: observed monthly sunspot number (thin yellow), observed smoothed monthly sunspot number (thick turquoise) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (magenta crosses).”

In this image yellow line is monthly sunspot number, turquoise is smoothed sunspot number which have 6 month delay and magenta is forecast line.

New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for june 2020 is 7,8. We did reach forecast which was 7,6 and forecast was increased from last month forecast. Solar activity was lower december 2020 than last month and forecast was increased from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 2 days in december. Sun has been 213 days for 2020. This is 58% days of year. Increase speed was 2,2 from last month. Next month we have 1,5 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month() showing change from last month forecast : 9,3 (+0,5), 11,0 (+0,7), 13,2 (+0,9), 15,6 (+1,1), 18,3 (+1,3), 21,3. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 11,4 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 13,5 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.8 9.3e (+0,5), 11.0e (+0,7), 13.2e (+0,9), 15.6e (+1,1), 18.3e (+1,3), 21.3e (+1,4),
2021 24.5e (+1,6), 28.1e (+1,9), 32.3e (+2,1), 36.7e (+2,3), 40.0e (+2,4), 43.4e (+3,9), 46.7 (+2,7), 52.4 (+2,9), 57.6 (+2,3), 61.8 (+1,5), 66.6 (+1,5), 71.9 (+1,7)
2022 76.4 79.9 83.0 85.9 89.1 92.3 94.9 97.7 101.3 104.2 106.6 109.3
2023 111.3 111.9 111.7 111.5 112.2 114.2 115.0 113.6 112.3 111.6 110.2 109.2

This month we got new forecast and we got two years more of forecast, as they are new i can’t write how much they changed from last month forecast but i wrote them above forecast. We did reach forecast and forecast was increased from last month forecast. This month increased next 6 month and next 12 month increase speed from last month forecast. This new forecast looks more demanding than last month forecast as increase speed was increased from last month forecast. I think solar activity might have been too high two months ago if we think solar cycle minimum was in december 2019 considering that we are beginning of solar cycle, it is good to remember that solar cycle on average rise 4 years from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum and decline 7 years from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum which is in sum that average 11 year solar cycle. This higher solar activity on november 2020 might have increased forecast higher and i think it have increased smoothed sunspot number increase speed as we have reached forecast. December 2020 activity was lower but we reached forecast still, forecast increased and i think it possible that we may not reach this forecast as i think this higher solar activity happened too quickly if thinking how low solar activity was before this higher solar activity. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

5 Likes

Increased sunspot activity means what to earth weather?

3 Likes

Hi

Before continuing it looks like my message was edited, i see “Sun has been 213 days for 2020” in my message, i think i wrote Sun has been 213 days without sunspot for 2020. I see my message has been edited on right upper edge of my message. I think i don’t edit my message, i have made some mistakes but i have corrected them if i saw them in new message. It looks like two words where missing in my message.

Chikn hi

You wrote “Increased sunspot activity means what to earth weather?” What do you mean by increased sunspot activity? What time period you are thinking of? If you think this two month ago higher solar activity which i mentioned i think it don’t change overall situation much, if we think it perspective it just one month when compared 11 year solar cycle. I think it is good idea not to pay too much attention one month change, i think it is good idea not to make long term change based on short term change, solar cycle is average 11 years long and we just begin this solar cycle. If we think about your question about earth weather, it is how to say it i don’t think it change overall image that i think global cooling might be coming to world. I don’t think this higher activity which i mentioned above change much in overall, it is just one month at this moment. I think it is overall situation that matter and sun overall or relative situation. Chikn if you remember 200 year cycle which i wrote about in my earlier message.

Dennis,

It’s true your message was edited by the system. But it didn’t edit your text. Sometimes the system this forum uses makes a very few minor edits, but the Discourse system never ever edits the text. In your case it appears the system edited the background color of your graph from a gray to a black (perhaps to make it more readable?)

You can change any edits. If you click on the upper right hand corner of the edit pencil, you should be able to revert back to your original post by clicking “revert to this revision”. This should revert your graph to a gray background vs. a black one.

PM me if you have problems doing it, and I will help you out as best as I can.

Your text for sure hasn’t been edited at all, only the downloaded copy of the image you posted. Any errors feel you recognized in your text were in the original written text.

Again PM me if you have any questions.

1 Like

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

        95.0%       50%      5.0%    

2020.5003 JUL 11.0 (+0,1) 9.0 (+1,6) 6.3 (+3,3)
2020.5837 AUG 14.9 (+1,4) 10.3 (+1,7) 5.4 (+3,2)
2020.6670 SEP 20.1 (+1,4) 11.4 (+1,7) 5.1 (+3,3)
2020.7503 OCT 23.9 (+1,1) 12.5 (+1,9) 5.2 (+3,6)
2020.8337 NOV 27.2 (+1,0) 13.6 (+2,1) 4.2 (+4,1)
2020.9170 DEC 31.2 15.2 3.6

New NASA forecast increased all forecast from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum changed from last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9-10/2024 9/2024 257,8 137,2 70,5
1/2024 10/2024 3/2025 246,3 130,9 66,3

Those forecast changed solar cycle maximum time earlier from last month forecast. Middle forecast have two months same number for solar cycle maximum, first number moved one month earlier and last number moved six month earlier. New forecast moved last month 0,0 number from december 2020 to october 2021 to this month march 2021 to june 2021.

Forecast have been increased this month, as we did reach forecast if we go by middle number of this list. This forecast show lower than IPS forecast for next month if we go by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS if we go by middle number. This new NASA increased all numbers and changed forecast solar cycle maximum time for first number which moved one month earlier, middle number had same month than last month but also added one month ahead of that which are same number and last number moved 6 month earlier from last month forecast. Last number forecast 0,0 months decreased from 11 months to this month 4 months in new forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for july 2020 is 8,8. We didn’t reach forecast which was 9,3 and forecast lowered for some month from last month forecast. Solar activity was lower january 2021 than last month and forecast was lowered for some months from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 16 days in january. Sun has been 16 days without sunspot for 2021. This is 51% days of year. Increase speed was 1,0 from last month. Next month we have 1,2 increase forecast.

Following re forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last last month forecast : 10,0 (-1,0), 12,3 (-0,9), 14,6 (-1,0), 17,3 (-1,0), 20,4 (-0,9), 23,6. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 13,5 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we we have 14,8 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forested SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.5 7.8 8.8 10.0e (-1,0), 12.3e (-0,9), 14.6e (-1,0), 17.3e (-1,0), 20.4e (-0,9),
2021 23.6e (-0,9), 27.1e (-1,0), 31.4e (-0,9), 35.7e (-1,0), 39.1e (-0,9). 42.5e (-0,9), 47.4e (-0,7), 52.4 (0,0), 57.6 (0,0), 61.9 (+0,1), 66.7 (+0,1), 72.0 (+0,1),
2022 76.6 (+0,2), 79.9 (0,0), 83.0 (0,0), 85.9 (0,0), 89.1 (0,0), 92.5 (+0,2), 95.0 (+0,1), 97.8 (+0,1), 101.3 (0,0), 104.2 (0,0), 106.6 (0,0), 109.3 (0,0),
2023 111.3 (0,0), 111.9 (0,0), 111.8 (+0,1), 111.5 (0,0), 112.2 (0,0), 114.2 (0,0), 115.0 (0,0), 113.6 (0,0), 112.3 (0,0), 111.6 (0,0), 110.2 (0,0), 109.2 (0,0)

This month we got new forecast, which i could now show change from last month for last two years in above forecast, which was added last month forecast. New forecast lowered 12 months, increased 8 months and 21 months was not changed from last month forecast. This new forecast increased next 6 month and 12 months increase speed from last month forecast, which i think may be doing this forecast more demanding than last month as it increase slope is now sharper than last month forecast. I think this new forecast might think we increase speed toward solar cycle maximum, altought we didn’t reach forecast. This new forecast changed little bit forecast from last month forecast, but changes was smaller than last month. I have said earlier that IPS forecast have been too optimistic as many months we have not reached forecast, if you had read that in my earlier solar cycle 24 update message thread. I think it is right direction some months was lowered from last month forecast, but overall image didn’t change much from last month forecast and this new forecast looks demanding if we think forecasted increase speed for next 6 and 12 months. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

95.0% 50% 5.0%

2020.5837 AUG 13.2 (-1,7) 9.9 (-0,4) 7.7 (+2,3)
2020.6670 SEP 18.1 (-2,0) 10.9 (-0,5) 7.4 (+2,3)
2020.7503 OCT 21.6 (-2,3) 11.9 (-0,6) 6.5 (+1,3)
2020.8337 NOV 24.3 (-2,9) 12.9 (-0,7) 5.3 (+0,9)
2020.9170 DEC 27.8 (-3,4) 14.4 (-0,8) 4.6 (+1,0)
2021.0003 JAN 31.5 16.1 3.8

New NASA forecast lowered first, middle and increased all last forecast months from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum changed from last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9-10/2024 4/2025 258,4 138,2 72,3
12/2023 9-10/2024 9/2024 257,8 137,2 70,5

Those forecast changed last number solar cycle maximum time later from last month forecast. Last number moved seven month later. New forecast moved last month 0,0 number from march 2021 to june 2021 to this month march 2021 to may 2021.

Forecast have been lowered this month, as we didn’t reach forecast if we go by middle number of this list. This forecast show lower than IPS forecast forecast for next month if we go by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS we go by middle number. This new NASA lowered all first, middle numbers, increased all last numbers and changed forecast solar cycle maximum time for last number which moved seven month later from last month forecast. Last number forecast 0,0 months decreased from 4 months to this month 3 months in new forecast. I think it is good last number moved solar cycle maximum more in future in new forecast, it is now 5 years and 4 months from solar cycle minimum when we began this solar cycle december 2019. Average rise time from solar cycle minimum to maximum is 4 years, so it is longer than average in this forecast which is sign of weak solar cycle in my opinion but let’s keep in mind it is forecast, it is not guaranteed and forecast change in future. First number is 4 years and middle number is 4 years 9-10 months from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum claculating same way using same solar cycle beginning month. First number is average rising time and middle number rising time is longer than average. If you look above forecast, you can see forecast increased maximum SSN for those numbers, just to mention last solar cycle 24 had maximum SSN of 116,4 if you look this new forecast you see middle number forecast is higher than while it shows longer than average rise time toward solar cycle maximum, i think this is concern for some extent as it might be look like forecast might be thinking we increase in future increase speed toward solar cycle maximum as middle number solar maximum didn’t change from last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed number for august 2020 is 9,3. We didn’t reach forecast which was 10,0 and forecast was lowered for some month from last month forecast. Solar activity was lower february 2021 than last month and forecast was lowered for some months from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 15 days in february. Sun has been 31 days without sunspot for 2021. This is 52% days of year. Increase speed was 0,5 from last month. Next month we have 1,6 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast : 10,9 (-1,4), 13,4 (-1,2), 16,3 (-1,0), 19,5 (-0,9), 22,9 (-0,7), 26,7. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 14,8 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 17,4 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monhtly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.5 7.8 8.8 9.3 10.9e (-1,4), 13.4e (-1,2), 16.3e (-1,0), 19.5e (-0,9),
2021 22.9e (-0,7), 26.7e (-0,4), 31.2e (-0,2), 35.7e (0,0), 39.3e (+0,2), 43.0e (+0,5), 48.1e (+0,7), 54.0e (+1,6), 60.1 (+2,5), 64.7 (+2,8), 69.8 (+3,1), 74.6 (+2,6),
2022 78.6 (+2,0), 82.0 (+2,1), 84.9 (+1,9), 88.1 (+2,2), 91.6 (+2,5), 94.3 (+1,8), 97.0 (+2,0), 100.5 (+2,7), 103.7 (+2,4), 106.3 (+2,1), 108.9 (+2,3), 111.1 (+1,8),
2023 112.0 (+0,7), 111.8 (-0,1), 111.5 (-0,3), 112.1 (+0,6), 114.2 (+2,0), 115.0 (+0,8), 113.6 (-1,4), 112.3 (-1,3), 111.6 (-0,7), 110.2 (-1,4), 109.2 (-1,0), 108.3 (-0,9)

This month we got new forecast, which lowered some months from last month forecast. New forecast lowered 15 months, 1 month was not changed and increased 24 months from last month forecast. This new forecast increased next 6 month and and and 12 months increase speed from last month forecast. Last month non smoothed sunspot number was 8,3 which is below current SSN which is smoothed sunspot number which don’t help going forward toward solar cycle maximum. SSN which is smoothed sunspot number have lowered increase speed from last month, it makes it looking more demanding than last month forecast because next 6 and 12 months have increased increase speed from last month forecast. Message here is same as last month, new forecast looks more demanding than last month forecast and IPS have been too optimistic in their forecast as many months we have not reached forecast. I think it is right direction some months was lowered from last month forecast, but overall image didn’t change much from last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

          95.0%       50%      5.0%    

2020.6670 SEP 13.6 (-4,5) 10.0 (-0,9) 8.1 (+0,7)
2020.7503 OCT 16.5 (-5,1) 10.8 (-1,1) 6.6 (+0,1)
2020.8337 NOV 18.6 (-5,7) 11.6 (-1,3) 5.9 (+0,6)
2020.9170 DEC 21.2 (-6,6) 12.8 (-1,6) 5.2 (+0,6)
2021.0003 JAN 23.9 (-7,6) 14.3 (-1,8) 3.6 (-0,2)
2021.0837 FEB 29.5 15.7 2.0

New NASA forecast lowered first, middle and changed all last forecast months from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum changed from last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9-10/2024 10/2024 254,8 138,2 72,8
12/2023 9-10/2024 4/2025 258,4 138,2 72,3

Those forecast changed last number solar cycle maximum time earlier from last month forecast. Last number moved six month earlier. New forecast moved last month 0,0 number from march 2021 to may 2021 to this month march 2021 to june 2021.

Forecast have been lowered this month, as we didn’t reach forecast if we go by middle number of this list. This forecast show lower than IPS forecast for next month if we go by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS if we go by middle number. This new NASA forecast lowered all first, middle number and changed forecast solar cycle maximum time for last number which moved six months earlier from last month forecast. Last number forecast 0,0 months increased from 3 to this month 4 months in new forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. Before continuing my message, i saw IPS have changed SSN from last month and two months before that in this new forecast. I think it would be good to mention this, last month SSN is now 9,5. Now we can continue this message. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for september 2020 is 10,5. We didn’t reach forecast which was 10,9 and forecast was lowered for some months from last month forecast. Solar activity was higher march 2021 than last month and forecast was lowered for some months from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 3 days in march. Sun has been 34 days without sunspot for 2021. This is 37% days of year. Next month we have 1,9 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast : 12,4 (-1,0), 15,4 (-0,9), 18,7 (-0,8), 22,2 (-0,7), 26,0 (-0,7), 30,6. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 17,4 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 20,1 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.9 9.0 9.5 10.5 12.4e (-1,0), 15.4e (-0,9), 18.7e (-0,8),
2021 22.2e (-0,7), 26.0e (-0,7), 30.6e (-0,6), 35.2e (-0,5), 38.8e (-0,5), 42.4e (-0,6), 47.5e (-0,6), 53.4e (-0,6), 59.3e (-0,8), 65.2 (+0,5), 70.4 (+0,6), 75.3 (+0,7),
2022 79.0 (+0,4), 82.4 (+0,4), 85.3 (+0,4), 88.4 (+0,3), 91.8 (+0,2), 94.4 (+0,1), 97.2 (+0,2), 100.8 (+0,3), 103.9 (+0,2), 106.3 (0,0), 109.0 (+0,1), 111.2 (+0,1),
2023 111.9 (-0,1), 111.8 (0,0), 111.5 (0,0), 112.1 (0,0), 114.2 (0,0), 115.0 (0,0), 113.6 (-0,6), 112.3 (0,0), 111.6 (0,0), 110.2 (0,0), 109.2 (0,0), 108.3 (0,0)

This month we got new forecast, which lowered some months from last month forecast. Above mentioned last month next six month forecasted increase is from last month forecast number, not this new forecast last month number just to mention it if you think about it. New forecast lowered 14 months, 11 months was not changed and increased 14 months from last month forecast. This new forecast increased next 6 month and 12 months increase speed from last month forecast. This new forecast have increased next 6 and 12 months increase speed from last month forecast. I think this make this new forecast more demanding than last month forecast, this forecast might be thinking we are going faster speed toward solar cycle maximum than last month forecast. Overall image image didn’t change much from last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’ look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

95.0% 50% 5.0%

2020.7503 OCT 12.9 (-3,6) 11.2 (+0,4) 9.1 (+2,5)
2020.8337 NOV 16.4 (-2,2) 12.0 (+0,4) 8.0 (+2,1)
2020.9170 DEC 19.2 (-2,0) 13.2 (+0,4) 6.5 (+1,3)
2021.0003 JAN 21.8 (-2,1) 14.8 (+0,5) 4.9 (+1,3)
2021.0837 FEB 27.4 (-2,1) 16.2 (+0,5) 3.6 (+1,6)
2021.1670 MAR 32.9 17.9 1.6

New NASA forecast lowered first, increased middle and last forecast from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum changed from last last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9/2024 10/2024 255,4 140,7 74,5
12/2023 9-10/2024 10/2024 254,8 138,2 72,8

Those forecast changed middle number solar cycle time earlier from last month forecast, last month we had two month same solar cycle maximum, now we have one month for solar cycle maximum, if we look last month last number of those two number for earlier time, now we have one month for solar cycle maximum. New forecast removed last month 0,0 number from new forecast, new forecast don’t have 0,0 forecast for last number.

This forecast show lower than IPS forecast for next month if we go by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS if we go by middle number. This new NASA forecast lowered all first, increased middle, last number and changed forecast solar cycle maximum time for middle number from last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. I think i do little bit analysis of sun situation where we are now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for october 2020 is 11,9. We didn’t reach forecast which was 12,4 and forecast was lowered most months from last month forecast. Solar activity was higher april 2021 than last month and forecast was lowered most months form last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 7 days in april. Sun has been 41 days without sunspot for 2021. This is 34% days of year. Next month we have 2,4 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast : 14,3 (-1,1 ), 17,3 (-1,4), 20,6 (-1,6), 24,1 (-1,9), 28,4 (-2,2), 32,7. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 20,1 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 20,8 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2024. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.9 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.9 14.3e (-1,1) 17.3e (-1,4),
2021 20.6e (-1,6), 24.1e (-1,9), 28.4e (-2,2), 32.7e (-2,5), 36.0e (-2,8), 39.4e (-3,0), 44.2e (-3,3), 49.9e (-3,5), 55.6e (-3,7), 60.9e (-4,3), 66.5 (-3,9), 71.8 (-3,5),
2022 76.4 (-2,6), 79.8 (-2,6), 83.1 (-2,2), 86.0 (-2,4), 89.0 (-2,8), 92.2 (-2,2), 94.8 (-2,4), 97.8 (-3,0), 101.3 (-2,6), 104.3 (-2,0), 106.6 (-2,4), 109.4 (-1,8),
2023 111.3 (-0,6), 111.9 (+0,1), 111.7 (+0,2), 111.5 (-0,6), 112.2 (-2,0), 114.2 (-0,8), 115.0 (+1,4), 113.6 (+1,3), 112.3 (+0,7), 111.6 (+1,4), 110.2 (+1,0), 109.2 (+1,1)

This month we got new forecast, which lowered most months from last month forecast. New forecast lowered 30 months and increased 8 months from last month forecast. This new forecast increased next 6 month and 12 months increase speed from last month forecast. I think this forecast is more demanding than last month forecast as this new forecast increased next month increase speed from last month forecast. Now we may look how solar cycle 25 as gone compared to last solar cycle 24, we are now 10 months in this new cycle if we look SSN which is smoothed sunspot number which have six month delay in it. Next in first line is solar cycle 24, second line is solar cycle 25, () show difference from solar cycle solar cycle 25 to solar cycle 24 SSN after solar cycle minimum, which was for solar cycle 25 december 2019 and solar cycle 24 december 2008.

2009 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 5.5 7.4 9.5 10.9
2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.9 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.9
-0,3 0,0 +0,1+0,3 +2,1 +3,8 +3,5 +2,1 +1,0 +1,0

Above we can see we began solar cycle little bit lower than solar cycle 24 but then current solar cycle increase speed was faster than last solar cycle and we reached 3,8 higher than SSN than last solar cycle with same amount of months. After that our leading has narrowed compared to solar cycle 24, which means current solar activity has not been so high compared last solar cycle same time months.

I think this new forecast is right direction on it it lowered most months from last month forecast, altought next 6 and 12 months increase speed was increased little bit from last month forecast which i think is not good as it made forecast more demanding than last month forecast and forecast might think we are going faster speed toward solar cycle maximum than last month forecast.Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

 95.0%       50%      5.0%     

2020.8337 NOV 15.5 (-0,9) 12.7 (+0,7) 10.7 (+2,7)
2020.9170 DEC 18.1 (-1,1) 14.0 (+0,8) 9.2 (+2,7)
2021.0003 JAN 21.1 (-0,7) 15.7 (+0,9) 7.9 (+3,0)
2021.0837 FEB 26.9 (-0,5) 17.2 (+1,0) 7.0 (+3,4)
2021.1670 MAR 32.0 (-0,9) 19.0 (+1,1) 5.4 (+3,8)
2021.2503 APR 37.4 21.2 4.4

New NASA forecast lowered first, increased middle and last forecast from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum was same as last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9/2024 10/2024 256,1 142,1 76,2
12/2023 9/2024 10/2024 255,4 140,7 74,5

This forecast show lower than IPS forecast for next month if we go by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS if we go by middle number. This new NASA lowered first, increased middle and last number forecast from last month forecast.

Forecasted solar cycle maximum time was same as last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for november 2020 is 13,6. We didn’t reach forecast which was 14,3 and forecast was lowered most months from last month forecast. Solar activity was lower may 2021 than last month and forecast was lowered most months from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 5 days in may. Sun has been 46 days without sunspot for 2021. This is 30% days of year. Next month we have 2,4 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast : 16,0 (-1,3), 19,1 (-1,5), 22,7 (-1,4), 26,8 (-1,6), 31,1 (-1,6), 34,4. Last month is new is new in the list. Last month we had 20,8 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 20,8 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.9 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.9 13.6 16.0e (-1,3),
2021 19.1e (-1,5), 22.7e (-1,4), 26.8e (-1,6), 31.1e (-1,6), 34.4e (-1,6), 37.7e (-1,7), 42.4e (-1,8), 48.1e (-1,8), 53.8e (-1,8), 59.1e (-1,8), 64.4e (-2,1), 71.1 (-0,7),
2022 75.9 (-0,5), 79.5 (-0,3), 82.8 (-0,3), 85.8 (-0,2), 88.7 (-0,3), 91.9 (-0,3), 94.4 (-0,4), 97.5 (-0,3), 101.1 (-0,2), 104.1 (-0,2), 106.4 (-0,2), 109.2 (-0,2),
2023 111.2 (-0,1), 111.9 (0,0), 111.7 (0,0), 111.5 (0,0), 112.2 (0,0), 114.2 (0,0), 115.0 (0,0), 113.6 (0,0), 112.3 (0,0), 111.6 (0,0), 110.2 (0,0), 109.2 (0,0)

This month we got new forecast, which lowered most months from last month forecast. New forecast lowered 26 months and 11 months was not changed from last month forecast. This new forecast didn’t change next 6 month and increased next 12 month increase speed from last month forecast. This month forecast didn’t increase next 6 month forecast speed when last month did increase it, next 12 month increase speed was increased from last month forecast.

I think this new forecast is right direction that it didn’t increase any numbers from last month forecast, last month forecast increased some numbers from last month forecast. Overall situation didn’t change much from last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to been how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

        95.0%       50%      5.0%     

2020.9170 DEC 16.3 (-1,7) 15.0 (+1,0) 12.4 (+3,2)
2021.0003 JAN 21.0 (-0,1) 16.7 (+1,0) 11.4 (+3,5)
2021.0837 FEB 26.6 (-0,3) 18.3 (+1,1) 10.9 (+3,9)
2021.1670 MAR 31.6 (-0,4) 20.1 (+1,1) 9.6 (+4,2)
2021.2503 APR 36.5 (-0,9) 22.4 (+1,2) 9.2 (+4,8)
2021.3337 MAY 43.4 24.7 10.0

New NASA forecast lowered first, increased middle and last forecast from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum was same as last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9/2024 10/2024 256,7 143,2 78,4
12/2023 9/2024 10/2024 256,1 142,1 76,2

This forecast sow lower than IPS forecast for next month if we by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS if we go by middle number. This new NASA forecast lowered first, increased middle and last number forecast from last month forecast.

Forecasted solar cycle maximum time was same as last month forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. We are now 1 year in solar cycle 25. IPS has updated solar cycle forecast image but for some reason it is not updated here. Earlier forecast image began 2008 and new forecast image began 2020. You can see new forecast image on this link : https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Images/Solar/Solar%20Conditions/Monthly%20Sunspot%20Numbers/sunspot.png or by clicking image on my first message and opening it in new window. I also do analysis where we are now in sun situation. We got new SSN and new forecast. New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for december 2020 is 15,4. We didn’t reach forecast which was 16,0 and forecast was lowered most months from last month forecast. Solar activity was higher june 2021 than last month and forecast was lowered most months from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 1 day in june. Sun has been 47 days without sunspot for 2021. This is 25% days of year. Next month we have 2,4 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast : 17,7 (-1,4), 20,9 (-1,8), 24,8 (-2,0), 28,8 (-2,3), 31,8 (-2,6), 34,8. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 20,8 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 19,5 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2021 17.7e (-1,4), 20.9e (-1,8), 24.8e (-2,0), 28.8e (-2,3), 31.8e (-2,6), 34.8e (-2,9), 39.2e (-3,2) 44.7e (-3,4), 50.1e (-3,7), 55.1e (-4,0), 60.3e (-4,1), 65.7e (-5,4),
2022 72.7 (-3,2), 76.4 (-3,1), 79.6 (-3,2), 82.8 (-3,0), 86.5 (-2,2), 90.3 (-1,6), 93.3 (-1,1), 96.4 (-1,1), 99.8 (-1,3), 102.4 (-1,7), 105.4 (-1,0), 108.4 (-0,8),
2023 110.0 (-1,2), 110.5 (-0,9), 110.8 (-0,9), 112.0 (+0,5), 114.2 (+2,0), 115.0 (+0,8), 113.6 (-1,4), 112.4 (-1,2), 111.6 (-0,7), 110.1 (-1,5), 108.7 (-1,5), 107.3 (-1,9)

I have removed 2020 year from above forecast as we have now got all data from 2020 year. December 2020 have increased this solar cycle SSN number 2,6 higher than last solar cycle same time which is 1 year after solar cycle minimum. I took it SSN rather than non smoothed sunspot number as non smoothed monthly numbers can go up and down from one month to another month.

This month we got new forecast, which lowered most months from last month forecast. New forecast lowered 33 months and increased 3 months from last month forecast. Next 6 month forecasted increase speed decreased from last month forecast when last month forecast it was same as earlier forecast. This month decreased next 12 months increase speed from last month forecast, when last month forecast increased it.

This month we got bigger image change than last month forecast. I think it is right direction next 6 month and 12 month increase speed have been decreased from last month forecast. Now let’s look where we are now sun situation. If we look at non smoothed sunspot number we haven’t reached as high as we reached november 2020, it makes thinking we might not get forecasted speed toward solar cycle maximum unless solar activity increases more so we could reach forecast. Forecasted lower increase speed is sign for that direction, but no guarantees on those things. One thing is if we look past 12 months non smoothed sunspot number we have three months last year and one this year which was below 10 non smoothed sunspot numbers, others are above it. It means we don’t have a lot of those small numbers in calculation left for SSN meaning we may need to get higher monthly sunspot to get higher SSN in future if and when SSN increases. If you think why i said past 12 months, SSN is 13 months average where first and last monthly numbers have 50% weight on it, to make it straightforward for easier to understand i said 12 months. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

1 Like

Is there actionable plant growth information we are trying to surmise from the solar flare cycles?

If a big enough solar flare comes right smack dab for your spot on earth…your cell phones and atm machines may not operate…and even worse things could happen.

But, generally, the sun has been cooler last 3 or more years. A person may debate it’s effect on climate…certainly day to day forecasts of rain or sunshine or freezes or hot spells.

Volcanic activity also has an effect, and it’s more ‘actionable’ than solar cycles.

I consider it useful information … more so than some other topics that grace these pages.
Sort of like the Almanac…useful information…amazing how they can be as accurate a year in advance as the Weather Channel is just 7 days in advance.

So, I may not read all the posts, but I am appreciative of the efforts Dennis1983 puts into the topic.

I wasn’t being snarky or anything, I honestly wanted to know if there was a plant aspect I wasn’t seeing.

BlueBerry hi

You wrote “So, I may not read all the posts, but i am appreciative of the efforts Dennis1983 puts into the topic”, thanks of encouragement.

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

95.0% 50% 5.0%
2021.0003 JAN 20.0 (-1,0) 17.0 (+0,3) 14.5 (+3,1)
2021.0837 FEB 25.3 (-1,3) 18.6 (+0,3) 13.3 (+2,4)
2021.1670 MAR 30.1 (-1,5) 20.4 (+0,3) 11.5 (+1,9)
2021.2503 APR 34.8 (-1,7) 22.6 (+0,2) 11.6 (+2,4)
2021.3337 MAY 41.6 (-1,8) 24.9 (+0,2) 12.7 (+2,7)
2021.4170 JUN 50.5 27.4 12.2

New NASA lowered first, increased middle and last forecast from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum was same as last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9/2024 10/2024 254,9 142,6 79,0
12/2023 9/2024 10/2024 256,7 143,2 78,4

This forecast show lower than IPS forecast for next month if we go by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS if we go by middle number. This new NASA forecast lowered first, increased middle and last number forecast from last month forecast. This month forecast show first time after december 2020 NASA lowered middle number forecast from last month forecast. This is where i have wrote down NASA forecast and see difference from last month forecast but if you want you can go their homepage and look in their archived forecast and go figure yourself if you want to see what was last month when forecast lowered middle number from last month forecast.

Forecasted solar cycle maximum time was same as last month forecast. Forecast are no always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.

1 Like