Solar cycle 25 update


#1

Hi

Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. This is continuing from my solar cycle 24 update message Solar cycle 24 update, - General Fruit Growing - Growing Fruit as we have now begun solar cycle 25. I have waited 6 months after solar cycle 25 begun, to see that we have reached solar cycle minimum, that is lowest smoothed sunspot number. Solar cycle 24 begun december 2008 and ended december 2019, that is 11 years solar cycle length which is average length of solar cycle. I was thinking earlier that solar cycle 24 might be longer than average, it looks like solar cycle 25 have begun as smoothed sunspot number is now increasing, at least in this moment. We got new SSN and new forecast. In new forecast we got 2 years more forecast, 2022 and 2023 year were added to forecast. Before going forward, let’s first upload IPS solar cycle forecast image here :

I think this image should update forecast every month, unless image address change sometime. I just copy here my earlier message explanation of this image as it was quite good way wrote it. “In this a graph of the current solar cycle: observed monthly sunspot number (thin yellow), observed smoothed monthly sunspot number (thick turquoise) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (magenta crosses).”

In this image yellow line is monthly sunspot number, turquoise is smoothed sunspot number which have 6 month delay and magenta is forecast line.

New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for june 2020 is 7,8. We did reach forecast which was 7,6 and forecast was increased from last month forecast. Solar activity was lower december 2020 than last month and forecast was increased from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 2 days in december. Sun has been 213 days for 2020. This is 58% days of year. Increase speed was 2,2 from last month. Next month we have 1,5 increase forecast.

Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month() showing change from last month forecast : 9,3 (+0,5), 11,0 (+0,7), 13,2 (+0,9), 15,6 (+1,1), 18,3 (+1,3), 21,3. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 11,4 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 13,5 increase for next 6 month for new number.

Following are forecasted SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.

2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.8 9.3e (+0,5), 11.0e (+0,7), 13.2e (+0,9), 15.6e (+1,1), 18.3e (+1,3), 21.3e (+1,4),
2021 24.5e (+1,6), 28.1e (+1,9), 32.3e (+2,1), 36.7e (+2,3), 40.0e (+2,4), 43.4e (+3,9), 46.7 (+2,7), 52.4 (+2,9), 57.6 (+2,3), 61.8 (+1,5), 66.6 (+1,5), 71.9 (+1,7)
2022 76.4 79.9 83.0 85.9 89.1 92.3 94.9 97.7 101.3 104.2 106.6 109.3
2023 111.3 111.9 111.7 111.5 112.2 114.2 115.0 113.6 112.3 111.6 110.2 109.2

This month we got new forecast and we got two years more of forecast, as they are new i can’t write how much they changed from last month forecast but i wrote them above forecast. We did reach forecast and forecast was increased from last month forecast. This month increased next 6 month and next 12 month increase speed from last month forecast. This new forecast looks more demanding than last month forecast as increase speed was increased from last month forecast. I think solar activity might have been too high two months ago if we think solar cycle minimum was in december 2019 considering that we are beginning of solar cycle, it is good to remember that solar cycle on average rise 4 years from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum and decline 7 years from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum which is in sum that average 11 year solar cycle. This higher solar activity on november 2020 might have increased forecast higher and i think it have increased smoothed sunspot number increase speed as we have reached forecast. December 2020 activity was lower but we reached forecast still, forecast increased and i think it possible that we may not reach this forecast as i think this higher solar activity happened too quickly if thinking how low solar activity was before this higher solar activity. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.


#2

Increased sunspot activity means what to earth weather?


#3

Hi

Before continuing it looks like my message was edited, i see “Sun has been 213 days for 2020” in my message, i think i wrote Sun has been 213 days without sunspot for 2020. I see my message has been edited on right upper edge of my message. I think i don’t edit my message, i have made some mistakes but i have corrected them if i saw them in new message. It looks like two words where missing in my message.

Chikn hi

You wrote “Increased sunspot activity means what to earth weather?” What do you mean by increased sunspot activity? What time period you are thinking of? If you think this two month ago higher solar activity which i mentioned i think it don’t change overall situation much, if we think it perspective it just one month when compared 11 year solar cycle. I think it is good idea not to pay too much attention one month change, i think it is good idea not to make long term change based on short term change, solar cycle is average 11 years long and we just begin this solar cycle. If we think about your question about earth weather, it is how to say it i don’t think it change overall image that i think global cooling might be coming to world. I don’t think this higher activity which i mentioned above change much in overall, it is just one month at this moment. I think it is overall situation that matter and sun overall or relative situation. Chikn if you remember 200 year cycle which i wrote about in my earlier message.


#4

Dennis,

It’s true your message was edited by the system. But it didn’t edit your text. Sometimes the system this forum uses makes a very few minor edits, but the Discourse system never ever edits the text. In your case it appears the system edited the background color of your graph from a gray to a black (perhaps to make it more readable?)

You can change any edits. If you click on the upper right hand corner of the edit pencil, you should be able to revert back to your original post by clicking “revert to this revision”. This should revert your graph to a gray background vs. a black one.

PM me if you have problems doing it, and I will help you out as best as I can.

Your text for sure hasn’t been edited at all, only the downloaded copy of the image you posted. Any errors feel you recognized in your text were in the original written text.

Again PM me if you have any questions.


#5

Hi

Let’s look now NASA solar cycle forecast. Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month () showing change from last month forecast :

        95.0%       50%      5.0%    

2020.5003 JUL 11.0 (+0,1) 9.0 (+1,6) 6.3 (+3,3)
2020.5837 AUG 14.9 (+1,4) 10.3 (+1,7) 5.4 (+3,2)
2020.6670 SEP 20.1 (+1,4) 11.4 (+1,7) 5.1 (+3,3)
2020.7503 OCT 23.9 (+1,1) 12.5 (+1,9) 5.2 (+3,6)
2020.8337 NOV 27.2 (+1,0) 13.6 (+2,1) 4.2 (+4,1)
2020.9170 DEC 31.2 15.2 3.6

New NASA forecast increased all forecast from last month forecast. Forecasted solar cycle maximum changed from last month forecast, first is first number in above list, first line is new forecast and second line in last month forecast :

12/2023 9-10/2024 9/2024 257,8 137,2 70,5
1/2024 10/2024 3/2025 246,3 130,9 66,3

Those forecast changed solar cycle maximum time earlier from last month forecast. Middle forecast have two months same number for solar cycle maximum, first number moved one month earlier and last number moved six month earlier. New forecast moved last month 0,0 number from december 2020 to october 2021 to this month march 2021 to june 2021.

Forecast have been increased this month, as we did reach forecast if we go by middle number of this list. This forecast show lower than IPS forecast for next month if we go by middle number and lower increase speed for next 6 month than IPS if we go by middle number. This new NASA increased all numbers and changed forecast solar cycle maximum time for first number which moved one month earlier, middle number had same month than last month but also added one month ahead of that which are same number and last number moved 6 month earlier from last month forecast. Last number forecast 0,0 months decreased from 11 months to this month 4 months in new forecast. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.