Let’s update solar cycle 25 situation now. This is continuing from my solar cycle 24 update message Solar cycle 24 update, - General Fruit Growing - Growing Fruit as we have now begun solar cycle 25. I have waited 6 months after solar cycle 25 begun, to see that we have reached solar cycle minimum, that is lowest smoothed sunspot number. Solar cycle 24 begun december 2008 and ended december 2019, that is 11 years solar cycle length which is average length of solar cycle. I was thinking earlier that solar cycle 24 might be longer than average, it looks like solar cycle 25 have begun as smoothed sunspot number is now increasing, at least in this moment. We got new SSN and new forecast. In new forecast we got 2 years more forecast, 2022 and 2023 year were added to forecast. Before going forward, let’s first upload IPS solar cycle forecast image here :
I think this image should update forecast every month, unless image address change sometime. I just copy here my earlier message explanation of this image as it was quite good way wrote it. “In this a graph of the current solar cycle: observed monthly sunspot number (thin yellow), observed smoothed monthly sunspot number (thick turquoise) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (magenta crosses).”
In this image yellow line is monthly sunspot number, turquoise is smoothed sunspot number which have 6 month delay and magenta is forecast line.
New SSN which is smoothed sunspot number for june 2020 is 7,8. We did reach forecast which was 7,6 and forecast was increased from last month forecast. Solar activity was lower december 2020 than last month and forecast was increased from last month forecast. Sun was without sunspot for 2 days in december. Sun has been 213 days for 2020. This is 58% days of year. Increase speed was 2,2 from last month. Next month we have 1,5 increase forecast.
Following are forecasted SSN for next 6 month() showing change from last month forecast : 9,3 (+0,5), 11,0 (+0,7), 13,2 (+0,9), 15,6 (+1,1), 18,3 (+1,3), 21,3. Last month is new in the list. Last month we had 11,4 increase for next 6 month from that time number, now we have 13,5 increase for next 6 month for new number.
Following are forecasted SSN to december 2023. First 12 are forecasted month are estimated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed sunspot number which have e character after number. In list () show change from last month forecast.
2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.8 9.3e (+0,5), 11.0e (+0,7), 13.2e (+0,9), 15.6e (+1,1), 18.3e (+1,3), 21.3e (+1,4),
2021 24.5e (+1,6), 28.1e (+1,9), 32.3e (+2,1), 36.7e (+2,3), 40.0e (+2,4), 43.4e (+3,9), 46.7 (+2,7), 52.4 (+2,9), 57.6 (+2,3), 61.8 (+1,5), 66.6 (+1,5), 71.9 (+1,7)
2022 76.4 79.9 83.0 85.9 89.1 92.3 94.9 97.7 101.3 104.2 106.6 109.3
2023 111.3 111.9 111.7 111.5 112.2 114.2 115.0 113.6 112.3 111.6 110.2 109.2
This month we got new forecast and we got two years more of forecast, as they are new i can’t write how much they changed from last month forecast but i wrote them above forecast. We did reach forecast and forecast was increased from last month forecast. This month increased next 6 month and next 12 month increase speed from last month forecast. This new forecast looks more demanding than last month forecast as increase speed was increased from last month forecast. I think solar activity might have been too high two months ago if we think solar cycle minimum was in december 2019 considering that we are beginning of solar cycle, it is good to remember that solar cycle on average rise 4 years from solar cycle minimum to solar cycle maximum and decline 7 years from solar cycle maximum to solar cycle minimum which is in sum that average 11 year solar cycle. This higher solar activity on november 2020 might have increased forecast higher and i think it have increased smoothed sunspot number increase speed as we have reached forecast. December 2020 activity was lower but we reached forecast still, forecast increased and i think it possible that we may not reach this forecast as i think this higher solar activity happened too quickly if thinking how low solar activity was before this higher solar activity. Forecast are not always right, it remains to be seen how sun continues in future.