I Understand that solar cycles play a role in how cold the winters are, over the next 2-4 years we have the peak of solar activity and from my perspective now until the next 1-2 years is the prime time to be planting fruit trees that need a couple years of growth to be ready for harsher cold weather.
I have planted Sofie’s gift Persimmon for example and still I wrapped it this winter and might next winter also.
Here is a article going into what I am talking about with the solar cycles from Farmer’s almanac.
The El Niño/La Niña cycle plays a much bigger role for many regions. Here in the PNW, La Niña winters (both the current winter and the last one) tend to be colder and wetter, while El Niño winters (perhaps next winter) are milder and more dry.
As you’re aware, some things predicted are based on actual weather cycles El Niño and La Niña Information. It is not an exact science, but we know a transition is over 80% likely to occur between now and April in certain areas. I’m a believer in science.
Most results lead to global warming debate articles etc but there is also plenty of evidence for the relationship, not to confuse this with saying there is no man made effect on climate, just that I understand there is a documented correlation with solar cycle activity Peaks and Valleys and hotter summers / colder winters.
I understand the maunder minimum event to be a major case to prove the point that the big burning star in the sky effects our weather on earth. I think it is still more complex and hard to say its this simple and predictable, but I sure had a dreary cold winter in Germany during the last valley in the solar cycle 2 summers back, and the recent spike in solar activity compared to the last summer of extreme heat and drought in Germany also confirms my bias…
You can see the similarities with my last few years weather in Germany and this chart. An odd thing is that the earth seems to be a bit ahead of the sun, but they must have more interactions than we fully understand also, so it may be something like electric charge or static electricity warming the solar system and earth, then the sun reacts with more flaring activity. IDK the specifics, but I am a drinker of the
I remember learning about El Niño and La Niña back in 9th grade and that affects the weather cycles. From forum responses it seems to have been a warm winter for some here and a cold winter elsewhere. November through January here it almost never broke above freezing this season and we had freezing temperatures we had not faced in years dipping down to the coldest it gets based on our zone. Even now in February it is snowing every week here still. It is just finally warming up here on other days so the snow can at least start to melt. If you looked at solar cycles and saw this year was an easy winter you would be quite sad and if you looked at last year where I am you would be quite happy. Last year we only had snow for around 3 months.
They are pretty certain that it’s currently transitioning to ENSO neutral (that’s the 80%+ number), but until northern hemisphere spring, they have trouble accurately predicting what it will be doing later in the year, what they call the “spring prediction barrier.” Here’s an explanation from the most recent diagnostic discussion:
The most recent IRI plume predicts a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in the next couple of months [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus is largely in agreement. ENSO-neutral is expected to prevail during the spring and early summer. There are increasing chances of El Niño at longer forecast horizons, though uncertainty remains high because of the spring prediction barrier, which typically is associated with lower forecast accuracy.