Levers,
As you point out, hardiness can be pretty variable. I appreciate the article you linked.
They claim a minimum hardiness level for the buds is -5F, but peach buds gain hardiness when there are extended cold temperatures which are below 27F for the daily high temperature. They claim peaches gain a couple degrees of hardiness for each day the the fruit buds remain frozen before the test event.
In other words, they are saying the T50 (50% of the fruit buds are killed) starts at -5F but goes lower by 2 degrees for each day the high is less than 27F, but then loose hardiness very quickly when the temperatures rise above freezing for even a short period of time.
I’d say that’s probably pretty close to right. I’ve never gotten winter damage to fruit buds as long as the temps don’t get too much below zero, but have noticed some damage when temps get below about -5F. I’ve noticed heavy damage before when temps got as cold as -9F, and noticed very heavy damage at temps below -11F.
At other times, I’ve also noticed very little damage at -9F, so it’s all extremely variable. I’ve not grown peaches through a -15F temperature yet, but I know some people on the forum have, without losing a peach crop.
Generally speaking I get worried when we get to -10F. I wouldn’t expect a complete loss normally, but would expect some losses.
As the article points out, it doesn’t take much to make a full crop. We lost a lot of our crop last year to spring frosts, but the trees made up a surprising amount of the loss with larger peaches, enough to the point that some trees will still breaking down with fruit. Of course some trees had no fruit.
I think with this cold spell yesterday, most of the Midwest had decent acclimation to the cold, so the buds are probably fairly cold hardy as peach buds go.
Many times it’s not one event which wipes out a peach crop. It’s wave after wave of cold weather, each wave taking a tithe of the crop, till there’s nothing left.