How is your weather?

warmwxrules · 2017-09-01T05:15:25.309Z

You can get them at tropical tidbits …tons of maps/model runs.

GFS Model

MSLP & 10m Wind

Can only get the day 7 Euro on COD…a french site has the 10 day but you have to rotate your head to view it

Euro is ////usually//// more accurate. I think the best thing to do is watch trends…the trend right now is south and west… not good for a hit somewhere on the US coastline.

subdood_ky_z6b · 2017-09-01T05:45:40.716Z

Thanks. I found it and am playing around with it. The model you show, the GFS shows it raking the Outer Banks and entering Chesapeake Bay and then moving towards DC. On Sep 11, of all days. Looks like about 925mb pressure before it brushes the Outer Banks, making it a cat 5?!? Hope it doesn’t hold to that model

Richard · 2017-09-01T05:57:32.303Z

subdood_ky_z6b:

Looks like about 925mb pressure before it brushes the Outer Banks

Not good.

Richard · 2017-09-01T06:14:46.174Z

Washington Post

Hurricane Irma is a threat for the U.S. coast, but the details on its track are...

Hurricane Irma is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the Caribbean. Beyond that, the path of this very strong storm remains uncertain.

subdood_ky_z6b · 2017-09-01T15:46:20.261Z

Newer models having Irma making a hard right turn before it gets too close the coast. Might swing out to sea and miss everything. But, it’s still a long way away to say for sure.

NHC has dropped its forecast winds after 5 days to 125, so it looks like it’s not strengthening as much as earlier predicted.

warmwxrules · 2017-09-01T16:09:12.012Z

Sparta, Wi just to my east was 35F (probably frost) and Black River Falls just to the north was 34F… La Crosse sat at 50F …it was chilly when i went out early…thick dew on everything.

Lots of smoke in the air yesterday and even today…could easily be seen on visible sat. Milwaukee area looked like they had it really bad. I thought someone had a campfire going yesterday…could really smell it in the air. High temp only hit 73F …

warmwxrules · 2017-09-01T16:38:40.557Z

Just watching the 12z GFS roll in…This thing is a monster after 200hrs…a pig of a storm…

after 200hrs…its anyone’s guess hwere it lands…keep an eye on it.

300hrs is fantasyland in model terms…

vRTI3kx.jpg1026×776 404 KB

Richard · 2017-09-01T17:00:31.518Z

warmwxrules:

300hrs is fantasyland in model terms.

Let’s hope the existing depression in the Gulf of Mexico doesn’t reel it in.

moose71 · 2017-09-01T17:30:21.629Z

nova scotia has tropical storm warnings out. gonna be bad for halifax! coast of Maines going to have some bad high tides from it.

moose71 · 2017-09-01T17:33:01.156Z

last mon. n. Maine had some light frosts 31f. its 48f right now with a low 40f windshield factor. might as well say the season is done up here.

subdood_ky_z6b · 2017-09-01T17:33:55.869Z

First wave of the rain bands are finishing up here. We got about 0.8in from that run over the last 7 hours or so. Very cool outside, still in the high 50s. More rain to come later today.

@warmwxrules, I saw a couple different models shooting it towards the Can Maritimes, but one had it around the Florida Keys? So, extra wide variabilties there. It’s still about 3k miles from the mainland. Guess it all depends on that high pressure ridge and if it moves off to the east next week. If it doesn’t, a US landfall is likely, wouldn’t you say?

Regarding its forecasted strength @ 200hr, some had it at about 900mb. That’s about a 175mph storm. A beast indeed.

Richard · 2017-09-01T18:00:13.286Z

warmwxrules · 2017-09-01T19:16:29.647Z

A monster for sure according to both euro/gfs. Probably cat 5 if the models are correct. The Euro looks more like the gfs (goes out to day 10 where it has it east of N Florida as a major cane). Lots of runs to go…still could be a fish storm or end up in the Gulf of Mexico…

Euro Link
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017090112,240,2017091112&projection=classical_north_america

Calron · 2017-09-01T20:37:54.048Z

Forecasting 115F here for today and tomorrow. That would beat the old record by 1F.

Richard · 2017-09-01T20:41:43.516Z

Calron:

Forecasting 115F here for today and tomorrow.

Oh wonderful. I’m arriving in Davis tomorrow and departing on Monday.

subdood_ky_z6b · 2017-09-01T20:54:26.679Z

Found this table on a NOAA site. Shows the correlation of pressure (in mb) to wind speed of hurricanes. If it is forecast (GFS) to get down to 905mb, then that’d put it at about 180mph.

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI – Current Intensity
MWS – Mean Wind Speed
MSLP – Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

bleedingdirt · 2017-09-01T22:33:23.319Z

108F here! Just can’t do without AC.

Richard · 2017-09-01T22:36:22.668Z

Having lived along the northern-most coast of California for a decade, I experienced plenty of storms spun out of the Gulf of Alaska that slammed into that area. At least one per year would be at 930 mb off-coast right before it veered into our area. The pines would often fall over but the Sequoias and Douglas Fir stood their ground.

mrsg47 · 2017-09-01T22:38:36.073Z

64 F here today and yesterday. Same for tomorrow then rain. Very cold for Newport!

mellis · 2017-09-01T23:19:54.279Z

@moose71 we’re about 10 degrees warmer than you here in bar harbor but are quickly plummeting in temps. Our season will be ending early this year too I think.