It’s really pretty simple. It’s about ‘ratings’. A 10 day out story on a MONSTER storm is great for ratings. (Just like a story of glaciers melting and causing cities on the beach to disappear.) They hope it’s all forgotten if the forecast proves in-accurate.
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Eastern Wisconsin also gets that east wind in the spring–they call it a pneumonia front. It can be 75F over here on the west side of the state and 40Fs in Milwaukee. That cold air can make it as far as Madison depending on how strong the winds off L Michigan are. The flip side is that lake is a huge heat sink, so in fall/winter that same wind can help things stay “mild” single digits while temps over here drop into the -20Fs. Forecasting it can probably be a challenge because it mostly depends on wind direction/speed. Having said this…over the years the hardest thing i have noticed to forecast is snow amts–weather models are almost always wrong.
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All I was talking about was the theory that meteorologists intentionally make predictions that are colder than the most likely outcome based on whatever method they use. I’m not talking about varied predictions, or methods used to establish the most likely hi-lo temps on a given day- I am merely suggesting that meteorologists would likely just try to make their predictions as accurate as they could. That’s all and it’s pretty simple.
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That’s where the interpretation part comes in. All models are wrong, but some are useful. The meteorologist is taking the wrong but useful model and deciding what part of the output range will be most useful.
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No, it is a prediction whose likelihood is based on science, although the science cannot provide certainty- I feel confident that any meteorologist worth their salt simply focuses on probability and tries to be as accurate as they can within the limitations of the science- at least as it applies to daily temperature forecasts. I’m sorry, but to me no other explanation makes an iota of sense and I’m truly baffled anyone would think it would be any other way. Not that I don’t make mistakes on a daily basis, even sometimes when I feel this certain- but I will take my odds.
Incidentally, the only reason this argument matters to me is that I consider logic and deductive reasoning as a base vocabulary of meaningful discussion about how things work and how we assess the physical world. I have always found folks like Scott and Danzeb to speak in the same language as me but on this otherwise tiny and insignificant “argument” I feel as though I’m speaking in a different language- or they are.
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Pinched my first apple bloom…it is black inside. It had been in a tight balloon stage on Monday.
But, I’m more concerned about this being a dry year…afterall, been 5 damp ones consecutively…odds favor a dry one.
In another post I showed a small potted peach tree that I started from seed that did not lose all it’s leaves over the winter even with several days below 10F. After several days this week with temps down to 22F it still has a few green leaves so it didn’t go completely dormant this winter. It had been heavily pruned so had a large root system to support it but I never expected it to not go dormant.
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Calling for 30 tonight, it’s about 33 now and clear skies, so I hope it doesn’t drop too much more. About done with freezing temps, it’s like the winter that’ll never end.
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Lost about 75 percent of my plum blooms. Peaches maybe 25 percent plus. Dropping close to 30 tonight but nothing like that sustained 20 degrees on two consecutive nights we just had. Pears still in tight cluster fortunately.
Still at least 3 weeks until I’m in the clear. Those early apples grafts are doing really well so far. I can see some signs of growth on at least half. Hasn’t exactly been callousing weather although we have had some warm sunny days. At the same time, it’s not been really hot and dry. Previously I think some of my smaller grafts dried out before they established themselves.
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I think it’s the curse of 6b.
Added note:. Watching temps at 6am down to 26. Originally forecasted for 31. Can’t catch a break.
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Watch next weekend. The Euro has another shot of cold coming Fri-Sun.
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This is what my plum flower looks like this morning, 4 days after the big freeze. Any chance some of the flower will survive and fruit?
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Only got to 33 this morning. I think I have about 50% survival on my peach (from the earlier 20° Freeze), and similar on apricot.
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Are there any small tight buds…could be one here and there escaped.
Sorry to hear that…I had 34 but I do bet it got colder in spots for sure in some valleys.
I consider it planting time here…thinking about digging out old Royalty Purple pod bean seeds. They germinate in colder temps than most and can take a light frost.
I see it. Right now forecasted in the mid to lower 30s, but that has a way of creeping down before the event.
Wider swings of temps seems to be the rule rather than the exception.
Well it was 26 this morning, forecast of 30. Not surprised, and not much I can do about it. I mean, it’s only April 2nd, and we have had a bunch of freezes later than that, even in May. So, itiswhatitis…
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No just above freezing here…but I did notice one leaf had some black on it this afternoon ,on a fig.
I think my apples ought to be okay for now, except my Zestar, its buds are partially open, but still green. My Macoun is loaded with fruit buds, really hope we get some of those this year. Zestar is full up too.
Think my Goldrush is on its way out, it has several darkened branches, and those failed the scratch test. Good thing I planted a newer one last week.
Some peach buds have bloomed, but most not, but there doesn’t seem to be as many buds on my trees this year.
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Of course you are right. I think I stress about the first freeze event the most, and then i come to terms with it.
Itiswhatitis @subdood_ky_z6b
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