I just surveyed my different weather apps, forecast lows are 19-20-23-24-27. What I have observed based on past freezes is these lower numbers are forecasts that put more of a worst-case analysis into forecast lows, and the higher numbers are forecasts without a worst case correction, they are just what the model spits out. So, the models look to be spitting out a 50% or so loss for me, and the worst case is 90+% kill.
In past years what I have noticed is it is the repeated bad nights that seems to really wipe me out. Only one bad night usually means I get a good crop. This wave has two bad nights in the forecast, fortunately so far no bad ones so I have a full load currently.
I tend to run a couple degrees colder than you do, from what I’ve seen. I have a Tomcot in full bloom, and peach is generally at “first bloom” stage depending on variety.
Apples are at 1/4” green and I think will be fine.
Looks like Sunday night and Monday night are the biggest concerns.
I think some of the variation too is that some of the models show a little bit more wind and/or cloud cover than others, and that would keep temps up a bit.
I did the same this morning. Three days ago I wasn’t too worried, as forecasts 5-6 days out can change a lot. Now I’m worried. My peaches will be mostly open by the end of the day today. If this forecast holds I’ll have a lost year for peaches. On the bright side, at least it will give my cicada-damaged limbs a year to recover.
@dpps I have two nights in a row forecast at 21 or 22, below the 90% kill level for peaches and apricots in full bloom. My apples are even approaching tight cluster in some spots, but are closer to half-inch green so should be mostly OKish.
This seems like the worst freeze for me since I started this hobby. Methley plum and Tomcot apricot in full bloom, peach is still mostly closed. Forecasted 22, 21, 27.
I think my plan will be to wrap the plum with xmas lights and just leave them on. The apricot is the smallest tree, so I’ll see if I can get a cover over it. I’m going to get up at 3 am and start my grill next to the apricot, keep it on low and see what I can do. I think I will try and start a fire in my little fire place and put it around my peach tree. If I can keep some heat around the trees, maybe it will help? It’s going to be a long three nights.
How do you guys plan to spray when it is that cold? Don’t your hoses freeze up?
There’s a reason I don’t have any peaches, plums or apricots…
one crop every 5 or 6 years isn’t any fun…and I learned that at least 30 or 40 years ago
(it’s not a recent thing).
I wonder if surrounding a tree’s base with big buckets of hot water would have any effect during a cold night. Maybe corralling it with a tarp would somewhat keep the warmer air localized.
It’s the wind, right. If it wasn’t going to be windy, you could make a roof with the tarp and trap some heat, but in the past the wind had ripped the tarps right off. The hot water idea might work also, only need a few degrees for a few hours, so if you are willing to be up half the night fighting nature, it is worth a try.
I’m going to borrow a fire pit from a neighbor, start a fire and spread the hot wood in the fire pits.
I have no idea how much heat is transferred from a hot grill or a fire, but it seems substantial. I’m going to have a fire extinguisher, an instant read thermometer, maybe a camp stove… and coffee, lots of coffee.
Good luck to all. I remember reading the advice long ago was to plant early bloomers on north facing slope but few of us have that option. For many years I grew a Redhaven peach on a west facing slope and can’t recall losing a crop to freeze.
I have no idea how much propane would be used, but my grill will go to 500 degrees even with all the knobs turned to minimum, if the lid is left closed.
What about charcoal? Start a charcoal fire and keep in under a tree. It would have to help some, wouldn’t it?
The thing that has worked for me is a tarp over the tree all the way to the ground. Then anywhere from 100 to 1500 watts of heat under there. That will give you 5-15F and that usually plenty.
If spring freezes are a frequent issue then a temporary or permanent greenhouse is the best solution. It hasn’t frozen in my greenhouse in 18 yrs, not just spring but anytime.
I had a temporary shelter in Amarillo that saved a few crops. Plant high density, put a high tunnel over it, and cover that this time of year. You would need a heater and good ventilation.
@fruitnut I have a tarp. The heat issue is the fact the fruit trees are ~200 feet from the house with no power. Maybe I should invest in running a line out there to the shed I am planning to put up this summer.
Your trees sound like the stages mine were in a couple of weeks ago when we were forecast for 18 or 19. It ended up being 23-24. My California apricots were the only casualties. Otoh, Montrose hadn’t quite opened the blooms and it did great.
I’m sure I lost several peach flowers, but it’s hard to tell. Mine were over half opened! Elberta hadn’t quite opened, so it’s fine too.
I don’t know if it’s because I had so many blooms or that 23 isn’t actually that bad on peaches? It wasn’t particularly windy but not still.
