Of course. And if you use a simple count of “warm enough days” then you also need to look at the total accumulation (i.e., a cumulative day count). My argument is that GDD gives an unreliable prediction. Explaining how to calculate GDD doesn’t make the prediction any better.
The key question is whether the GDD metric predicts plant behavior better than a simpler metric. Partly this is an empirical question, and the evidence I accumulated indicates that GDD is less reliable. Partly this is a question about the mechanics driving growth. Using GDD would be better if growth is controlled by a biological “dial” that increases growth continuously as the ambient temperature increases from,. say, 60 F (low growth) to 90 F (high growth). Using a count of days (or hours) would be better if growth is controlled by a biological “on/off switch” such that growth is near zero below some critical temperature (e.g., 55-60 F) but near maximal above that critical temperature. My data suggests that for figs, it’s a switch that goes ON at 60-65 F.
Yes, of course. But the same would apply for the “warm enough days” requirement.
OK but this doesn’t affect the criticism. It just changes the numbers slightly. The point is that the GDD metric accumulates superfluous heat.
I’m not saying that GDD is useless. Of course “it can give people an idea.” My point is that it is not the best metric. If you live in Georgia, you expect figs to ripen quicker because you have really hot heat. If you live in the North, you expect figs to ripen slower because you have merely warm heat. For example, suppose the average GDD requirement for Ronde de Bordeaux is 2500 GDD50. In GA, you might get to 2500 GDD in 75 days; you’d be shocked to find that RdR doesn’t ripen for another 20 days! In RI, you might get to 2500 GDD in 115 days; you’d be shock to find that RdB ripens 20 days early. With a day count metric, there are fewer surprises.
What I told you is that I did some of that work. Granted I looked broadly at time to ripening, combining times for fruit set, growth, ripening. But I can tell you with high confidence that the threshold for figs is ~60-65 F and that additional heat above that threshold doesn’t matter much. if at all.
Of course there will be more figs in an area with a longer growing season. Duh. That isn’t the issue. The question was about “ripening times.” In most discussions among hobbyist growers, this translates to something like “how much time is required for a fig to ripen its first fruit.” Whether a tree ultimately produces 10 fruits or 100 fruits or 1000 fruits is immaterial.
It ignores these differences because they are irrelevant to the question. If the growing season starts in Georgia on March 1, then RdB will ripen ~95 “warm enough days” later, maybe mid July. If the growing season starts in Rhode Island on May 1, then RdB will ripen ~95 “warm enough days” later, maybe mid-August. So long as the days are “warm enough” (i.e., >60-65 F), it doesn’t matter whether those days were hot (e.g., 90 F) or merely warm (e.g., 75 F).