Too little or too much water?

To the more expert eyes, is this the result of too much or too little water?

No expert eyes. But did you check for aphids?

None that I’ve seen.

how much water has it been getting?
It could be a lot of things, including just general shock (assuming a new transplant).

What is that white material around it? Is it an air layering?

No, that’s the grafting tape.

I hadn’t been watering it much. I transplanted it into the ground and it was just starting to thrive. It rained the other day and it started to go downhill. The soil has good drainage.

So you grafted it before or after you planted it in to the ground? How long has it been since you grafted it?

I used the wrong words, I meant did you graft something on to a root stock.

If I were concerned about watering, I would move some of the mulch and dig down a few inches and see if the soil is moist, bone dry, or water logged.

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Ah - I didn’t notice the grafting tape.
It could just be that the graft didn’t fully take and the scion is drying out as it exhausts its own moisture supply.