El Niño is Here

I wonder does federal flood insurance also cover mudslides?

It depends on whether the stuff running on the ground is called a “mud slide” or a “debris flow”.

I can’t recall from our flood a few years ago which it is, but one was covered and the other not. It is a very arcane system of definitions for coverage.

Well, got over an inch here on my property. Two very rainy days, and still a 20% chance of thunderstorms, today. Listening to the weather on NBC this morning, Al Roker mentioned the increase in ocean temp in the Pacific, and that sets up a more conducive condition for Pacific hurricanes. Apparently there is another depression forming off the coast of Mexico that may bring a repeat of what we had this weekend, in about a week or two. We broke a 113 year record for rainfall in July here. Weird, weird weather. SUPER humid out right now - 91%. Just muggy and icky. My papayas and mangoes are very happy, though!

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It had just started to sprinkle when I was leaving to go to dinner and a movie with friends yesterday and by the time I drove 1/2 mile down the road everything was flooded. I was so scared…lol my little ford fiesta was up to her hubs in water. Freaking CRAZY!!! Yesterday’s rain was the hardest I have ever seen since I moved here!

Peeked out back today before I left for work and our DG “driveway” (Access to the back 40) has started to form it’s own gorge. lol

If this humidity would go away …life is good (Chickens may not agree) :smile:

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HQ, now you know I’m a witch.

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I’m glad you SoCalr’s are finally getting some action.

Me, too, bleedingdirt. Here is NOAA’s forecast regarding that “repeat performance”:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

Yup, it’s gonna be an active summer here in CA. If anyone wants to explore in detail, this blog if very informative. The comment section is entertaining too. I’d had no idea the Sierras were doing so well!

Whoa. That is a little scary, even. Guess we better be careful what we wish for here in California. It will be interesting to see how things shape up over the next few months. :cloud:

Heh, heh! Wouldn’t that be a warlock? Just to be gender-correct?? :closed_umbrella:

I considered wizard, but witch just seems the most appropriate for an uncanny prediction- although it wasn’t really a prediction, although I figured the weather has been weird enough lately that you might get a very unusual amount of summer rain. I am delighted that my hope is coming through even if it doesn’t yet put any dent in the drought. Just having things green up a bit helps with the fires and takes some of the edge off.

As far as I can tell, El Niño doesn’t affect northeast weather in any predictable way.

@AJfromElmiraNY

My understanding is that it will produce a wetter and slightly warmer winter here in the northeast. Warmer but still cold enough for snow.

So we might wind up with some large snowfalls.

Mike

A warmer winter would be nice. I didn’t see any particular patterns when I looked at data for previous strong El Niño years. It seemed evenly split in the deviations. I didn’t do any statistical calculations, just compared.

Don’t want to be called a “witch” ( :slight_smile: )so I won’t make any predictions.

For now I will just have to concentrate on fruit picking and will wait for winter and see.

Mike

I just checked the weather models a few minutes ago, and the next chance for monsoonal rains for SoCal will be on August 3rd.

In the meantime, it looks like SoCal might get hit by a heat wave by the end of the month.

Hoo wee. It’s shaping up to be a humdinger:

And, no heat wave for us. So far.

Patty:

I hope CA gets lots of rain this winter without too much damage. But the talk of unprecedented conditions would be a little concerning to me. The one link above mentioned the possibility that things could go array. You could end up with record warmth and no rain.

We very well could, fruitnut, if we have that odd weather anomaly that sits as a high pressure area over S. California, forcing the jet stream up into N. California. If that happens, there could be terrible, terrible flooding in the Sacramento area. I am hoping this is not the case, and that the jet stream stays across S. California this fall and winter.

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