The other freaky scenario is lots of rain but heat too, affecting sierra snowpack. We need that freezer full!
Another low chill winter will really hurt CA Cherry and Fruit growers despite any water they may get…
Let’s just let it unfold and then we can complain. No one knows and it’s so much more fun that way.
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Take it from the Dodo bird:
“I never never ever do a thing about the weather.”
That’s Scenario three in my weather forecast.
Scenario number one is: above avarege precipitation.
Scenario number two is: historic precipitation.
NOAA and others are now predicting that the El Nino precipitation should extend up to San Francisco. This is very good (and possibly very bad) news, as it could significantly impact the Sierra Nevada snow pack, which we need very badly. The flip side to that is the possibility of bad flooding in N. California, especially in the Sacramento area. Alan, we obsess over this because we’re desperate for water. A common reaction to folks in desperate straights.
You forget, HQ, I’m a CA native son. I lived in the flammable foothills and obsessed on several droughts during my years there that threatened my livelihood. On numerous occasions I’ve had to crawl through dense brush to repair miles of PVC carrying gravity spring water chewed up by squirrels desperate for water. This is all part of what drew me to the east coast and their usual 12 months of precip.
Droughts, floods, earthquakes, brush fires are just the price you pay for “perfect” weather. Oh, and there’s also the actual price you pay for real estate.
I miss it all terribly (it being the CA I knew 50 years ago) but I’m not too tempted to return.
Nope, didn’ forget that, Alan. 
But I think after being away from the area for a while, it’s easy to forget how desperate we get here, which causes us to endlessly speculate what the future outcome for an El Nino might be. Which I am sure annoys some folks who do not live in parched CA. I had a 10 year stint in N. Indiana, and another 3 years in Maryland, and wouldn’t trade my downsides for anything. Got my fill of shoving snow in Indiana, and dealing with insane humidity in MD. Ick. Fortunately for us, we now have better drips systems - hoping I can save up the $$ to replace our very old system, which has not been overly plagued with rodent destruction (yet). So, I will keep my earthquakes, wildfires, and droughts. And, ridiculous property prices, until I can find a nicer place to live. So far, the only other state that meets my criteria is Hawaii, and their cost of living is even higher than ours in CA.
Are they predicting a wet but warm winter? Selfish of me, but I really want some chill hours for my fruit trees! We need the water either way, but in my particular area of Santa Cruz, there’s very wet soil just a few feet down, so my deep rooted trees haven’t suffered from lack of water. Chill hours is another story!
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Well, Lizzy, everyone is more focused on precipitation than temps. I, too, would like some chill hours this winter, since we got essentially none last winter. Here are some links to some of the more current info on this “super” El Nino event:
Thanks Patty!
I know how you guys feel in the sense I would never leave Michigan. Maybe for the winter, but always back for spring summer and fall. Where you live get’s into your blood. I have had a long swim everyday for the past 17 days. The water is only 70F this year. About 2 degrees colder than normal due to the super cold winters.
I could never give that swim up, ever. I love to swim in fresh cold water, and I could not bear not to have it. The water temps should begin to drop in the next few weeks. The fish too, way too good eating and free. Well if you catch them yourself. I have been having a good fishing season this year. Ton’s of walleye and perch.
Too yummy to think about it 
I am jealous.
It was nice to fish so much this year. The last couple of years I have not had time to go out but a few times. I made time this year.
I’m also concerned about future weather. Not nowhere as problematic though as in CA. Good luck guys.
Every year we all float down the St Clair River, south channel (one of three channels). This is a river! Salmon run in the spring and fall.
I’m glad the fish YOU catch are free. We have an avid fisher in the house. Even though I sometimes feel a (short lived) twinge of guilt for the amount I spend to grow fruit and veggies with known inputs that are so much better than we can buy, all I have to do is think of the cost invested per ounce of edible fish that gets to the table, and any qualms I have immediately vanish. The cost for fish is exponentially higher for us. I’m not complaining, though. I actually encourage it. It’s a good hobby to have. Far better than some others I can think of.
Boy do I miss Perch! Lucky you!
Yes, totally, the tackle was bought years ago. I catch my own bait, or use artificial lures. I have not bought any new fishing equipment in 10 years. I do have 2 new rods, and reels, but they were gifts. All I spent this year was for about a pound of flour to catch minnows. Well not really, my wife was throwing some old flour out and I snagged it out of the trash. Also when using a boat, my daughter’s boyfriend used his. Mine has not been in the water for 5 years.
I fish a lot off docks, like our swimming doc at 6AM. My cottage is 3 minutes away so the coffee cup is full, radio, and just sit and watch the world go by.
I have caught large mouths, small mouths, white bass, silver bass, crappie, sunfish, perch, walleye, channel catfish, salmon, muskie, sturgeon, Sheep heads, two types of suckers. I throw all back but the perch and walleye.
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It’s cheaper than therapy.
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Heh heh. Right. Cheaper for all of us.
Same way I think about growing things and bee keeping. Cheaper than therapy, gym membership, or travel. And both produce products we can use and share.
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Works better, too. (And I approve heartily of good therapy!)