Hurricane Florence thread


#21

Current NWS map


#22

Even though both started at a more southern point of origin…this looks like a Hugo or Floyd to me. Major Hurricanes seldom make direct hits on the east coast. But, this will be the exception. Like 1989 and 1999.


#23

Scarey business with this hurricane!


#24

Latest GFS (12am) has it slamming into the OBX late Thursday night at 932mb, then drifting toward the Norfolk area, then sliding to the west along the NC/VA border. It’s basically going to stall once it hits the coast and drift for a few days, ala Harvey. An immense rainmaker. Probably not what you wanted to hear @JustAnne4

Canadian model, showing two landfalls!


#25

Projected rain totals, key on right shows 24" in bright yellow on top, then drops in 4" increments.

Forecast of winds and positions

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 24.6N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND


#26

Yes, landfall of the eye and rainfall from the “hammer” are often in different locations.


#27

That model looks a lot better for my area, but it may not be right.

Check out; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAchCp4HcPo&feature=youtu.be

Check out the picture around 10:34.

I’m hoping the damage from this storm is nothing like Hurricane Camille which dumped 2 feet of rain on Nelson County in central Va and killed hundreds of people, but the picture around 10:34 in the video looks real bad for central NC/VA.


#28

I think it is time to think about evacuating the area. Rent a U-Haul while they are still available. It might be a false alarm, but better safe than sorry!


#29

Looks like the eye is still on track to hit Cape Fear.


#30

Latest prediction has the eye plowing into Jacksonville NC, then heading west.


#31

Yeah, it’s not looking good, the possibilty of an out to sea scenario is pretty much nada. Latest models has it hitting between Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach and then sliding down the coast before turning inland.

The ridge north of it isn’t going anywhere, and another one to the NW will cause it to stall at landfall. The only good out of this is that it’ll hit that ridge and encounter a little bit of shear at landfall, so it will weaken a bit, but still be a cat 3 storm at minimum. It also won’t carry its high winds very far inland, but the rainfall will be prodigious.

My buddy in Lumberton, NC will be getting hit pretty hard by the rain, hopefully the winds won’t be as bad as earlier expected.


#32

Storm is huge, it is wider than the NC and SC coasts.
Churning along now with 140mph winds


#33

Lets hope that it does like Hurricane Floyd back in 1999 and weakens greatly before landfall. Floyd was a monster as one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes of its intensity ever recorded. It weakened before landfall to a category 2 but still had a death toll of 74 lives. It did $6.5 billion in damages.


#34

The gov mandated an evac of the lowest zone (A) where one of my sons lives. We are in zone B. It’s looking like we won’t get but 6-8" of rain. We are on the surge side so not sure what that will add up to if anything. My main concern is downed trees and loss of power.
It was comforting to hear (Trump news conference) that FEMA and the power companies already have assets in the area.
Praying the people of NC & SC have minimal damage to life and property.


#35

They’re saying it may weaken a bit before it hits the coast, not down to a cat 2, but less than what it’s at now.

The storm is so big that no one from Virginia to Georgia can really let their guard down, especially with the possibility of it sliding down the coast like some models are showing.

Euro

FV3-GFS


#36

Yeah…if it does that “slide” you are talking about…it will do a number on things from Wrightsville Beach to Myrtle Beach.


#37

The 5AM predictions show that slide, more towards GA.


#38

My rainfall prediction moved from 10-20 inches to just 4-6 inches with the shift.


#39

Same here, along with the probability of hurricane force winds.


#40

Just watched video of the plane flying into the eye of Florence to take measurements. The ocean temp is 80 degrees! That’s like rocket fuel for a hurricane.