12z Euro looks like it rides the coast of NC/SC and goes inland somewhere that SC/GA area…
Goes16 floater:
zoomed out view:
Her outermost cloud band looks to be moving over NC now.
The bands of intense rain extend 120 miles out from the eye. Given the predicted rate of travel, this means intense rain will hit the coast at least 8 hours prior to the eye.
Just saw on the news that the weather plane spotted an
83 ft. high wave in the northwest quadrant.
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The prediction is that the storm surge and 120+ mph winds will carry small craft in the harbors up to two miles inland.
Looks like the new predicted path for the storm may carry it over your area
Yes, I’m afraid it doesn’t look good. They’ve cancelled the
USC/Marshall football game and cancelled all classes at USC.
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Dropped to Cat 2.
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Glad it’s dropped to a category 2 but it sounds like even as a 2 it will cause horrible damage https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/us/hurricane-florence-south-east-coast-wxc/index.html! This is what was said “I don’t care if this goes down to a Category 1,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said. “We’re still going to have a Category 4 storm surge.” Sounds bad
“ Latest developments
• Storm has weakened: Florence is now a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.
• Where is Florence? The storm was about 235 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina and was moving at about 17 mph on Thursday morning.
• The path of the storm: Florence’s center will approach the North and South Carolina coast late Thursday and Friday, but it’s unclear where and precisely when it will make landfall. As the storm moves inland, Georgia, Virginia and Maryland will also be in peril.
• Storm surge still a big threat: Strong winds will send rising water inland from the coastline of the Carolinas. The National Hurricane Center says the storm surge could rise up to 13 feet – that’s water inundating homes up to the first floor ceiling.
• Flight cancellations: At least 800 flights along the US East Coast have been canceled Thursday through Saturday ahead of the storm.”
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The category of a storm is determined by the wind speed. (It’s kinda like your ‘growing zone’ is determined by your low temps, NOT by how hot it gets.) So not sure what he means by Cat 4 storm surge. This still has churned up a LOT of water to dump somewhere.
Add to that statement, “if your 1st floor is a sea level”
I’m not downplaying this at all. On the other hand sometimes these can be over hyped. Thankful the wind speed has dropped. Hopes it drops lower still, but to me, the wind damage is the scariest part.
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Yes, the top sustained speeds – typically at the eye walls.
The storm surge for Florence is huge. It is pushing an 80+ foot high 40 mile long swell westward.
The amount of water in its cloud bands is also huge – enough to bury both the Carolinas in 16" of water.
Interesting models last night of where Florence could be going. The blue is American. The red is Euro.
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We were hoping Harvey was overhyped but it wasn’t. Did exactly what they said it would…
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The Euro model correctly predicted Harvey as to its entry into Texas and then backing out and then going up the coast and then re-entering near the Tx/La state border and then continuing. The American model had going in at it entry point and then continuing into Texas and I believe New Mexico. It will be interesting to see how the two models perform in the post above pertaining to Florence.
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From the Associated Press:
Fatal hazards: historically, 49 percent of U.S. hurricane deaths come from storm surge, 27 percent from rain, 8 percent from wind, 6 percent from surf, 6 percent were offshore and 3 percent from tornadoes.
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During Harvey over 900,000 vehicles were totaled due to flooding, and that only included the ones that were insured. I did not live in the 100 yr. flood plan and still got 8.5 feet of water in my house. Many people are still not in their homes yet. Others are in their homes but work is still being done. We had over 40 inches over 3 or 4 counties (not including Harris county where Houston is located). 2 official weather stations had over 60 inches in Jefferson county. We have very flat land so most of the water came up and then back down. Not much running water like the Carolina’s will have. Hope the storm continues to weaken.
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Wow this sounds like a terrible storm according to https://6abc.com/live-video-conditions-in-north-carolina-as-florence-strikes/4243455/. Two people are dead already due to a tree falling on them and hundreds of people are trapped. This storm will sit on Carolinas until Sunday and Atlantic beach has 31 inches of rainfall already. What I don’t understand is this station seems to paint a different picture http://m.wmbfnews.com/story/39004641/first-alert-flash-flooding-and-torrential-rains-and-wind-continue-across-the-area
Thanks for the link @Richard now the deaths are up to 4 according to your link. They updated it a few minutes ago. The original video I posted was already pulled. Apparently the rivers cannot empty due to the storm so the inland is in danger of flooding soon.
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