Seattle should be moving to zone 9a in the next update

I have a Eucalyptus planted out in the front yard to hide the telephone pole. It is 3 years old and already 20 feet tall. Amazing how fast they grow.

I haven’t had much luck with citrus. It is just too wet here I think.
A friend nearby grows some varieties fully unprotected in the ground. (Yuzu, Sudachi) and gets bumper harvests.
He also has a Meyer Lemon but it goes in a greenhouse in winter I believe

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Had a busy work day so haven’t had much time for fun projects like this. I have made just one chart so far, based on SeaTac data only, from 1948 to 2020, with the 30-year average starting in 1977 (30 years after the start of the dataset):

The UW dataset is a bit more spotty, with many years where there were fewer than 330 days of data available, so it’s a little less reliable, but I’ll add that later if there’s interest. It looks like the SeaTac minimum temperatures were usually about 5 to 10 degrees colder than the UW temperatures for the decades where there’s an overlap (1948 to 1983), but that could be a heat-island effect on the UW campus?

EDIT: Here’s the chart for the UW dataset, which shows very little change over the entire dataset (1909 to 1983, with the running average starting in 1938), though as you see the end of this is above the start of the SeaTac line:

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The 30 (years) used by climatologists is a factor nominally used in many of the sciences; it was statistically determined many years ago that 30 measurements of anything resulted in a representative average. Something related to standard deviations.

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Zone maps should not. be based on 10-20 year trends.

They are based on 30-years of data, not 10-20. I agree it’s a very incomplete picture of plant hardiness in a particular area, but mostly because of the reasons @ramv mentioned above (doesn’t factor in heat units, rainfall, humidity/aridness, chill hours, etc), not because it should be a longer dataset. 30 years is a pretty good indicator of what’s “likely” even if it’s not necessarily capturing all the extremes that are possible.

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The usda rezoned most of SE Michigan about 15 years ago from 5b to 6a. Many orchardists decided to plant peaches and lost A LOT of time effort and money when only a few years later we had 3 of the coldest winters on record in a row.

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Seattle is colder than average this year
not warmer.

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And yet our coldest temperature of the winter has only been the equivalent of zone 9b (25°F)… which still supports my original point

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People will find reasons for their preconceived opinions.
It was colder last year also.

We had 17F a few years ago. I think we need a hardiness scale that makes a distinction between tree survival and bud survival. If the minimum temperature is 17F for 3 hours or 3 weeks, it is still 8b. The lowest recorded temperature here was 5F, and it can happen again.
Trees care about the current weather, not averages. Even if they made an official change, I would not accept their new zone 3 years after experiencing zone 8b temperatures. Either way, a zone change will not affect how my trees grow.

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I agree with criticism of the USDA growing zone system, but since so many people use it, that’s the metric that’s easiest to compare and discuss. But I certainly hope no one makes their planting decisions based solely on growing zone!

That being said, I think it’s fair to say that it’s very unlikely that Seattle will see temperatures below 10°F again, and it’s increasingly rare to see it go below 15° (once or twice a decade maybe). Most years now it doesn’t fall below 20°F, and it’s increasingly common to see winters where it doesn’t even go below 25° (like this winter). However, 40+ years ago it went below 20° multiple times every winter, and fell below 15° most winters. So there are probably trees that can survive now that would not have survived back then.

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https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Washington/Places/seattle-temperatures-by-month-average.php

Again
It’s actually colder than usual here for March.

I am fine with it being a little chilly. My plums are barely open. We have had plenty of rain, so it could be a good year if the weather picks up a bit. I would prefer it get warm all at once than the months of mild crappy weather we had last Spring and early Summer. If the weather forecast holds, I may get good plum pollination this year. Last year was great weather during the apple season, but the stone fruit blooms took a hard hit.

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Yes
Our abundance of chill hours (34-50 degrees) in the Fall and Winter encourage early budbreak and bloom- especially on most Stone Fruits.
Apricot is nearly hopeless and Peaches are not much better.
I’ve had good results with Plums though.
Cherries have other liabilities like splitting and bird predation. Pie Cherries are far tougher.

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The bare-root Frost peach I bought from a big-box is starting to bloom, but Nanaimo on wild plum is still asleep. I should probably give her a scratch to see if she is still alive.

Why are apricots and peaches hopeless? Lots of folks including me are getting large crops.

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I am trying to grow Tlor, and I want a nectaplum in the future. I am sure some of the late-blooming cots will grow, but Tlor fit my general interspecific theme. I have found Frost and Nanaimo are easily manageable with spray. I don’t know if that will last when they begin fruiting.

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Lots of people?
sorry if I doubt it.
Apricot blooms the earliest of the Stone fruits.
Usually in February- too early.
Peaches are a little bit later.
Sure
You can get the trees to grow
But our climate is poorly suited for either of them.
Apricot is subject to several fungus problems.
Even at Mount Vernon WSU
with professional care
Apricots were difficult.
But
it’s your time and energy.

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This forum has real fruit enthusiasts. We deal with adverse situations all the time and don’t complain about energy or time.
If you want apricots or nectarines, you need to dormant spray to control fungal diseases. Its a small price to pay.
Elsewhere in the country you have to spray during the growing season too. At least we don’t have the humidity and much higher pest load of the eastern part of the US. Even parts of California have to spray to control PLC and apricot fungal diseases.

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I regularly get tons of fruit from Frost at least in the last 2 years. All my nectarines and peaches bear well. The fruit quality hasn’t been as impressive as from Eastern WA but atleast they fruit here.

@Bradybb is the stone fruit expert in our area and is quite successful growing a variety of fruits.

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